So all this nonsense and in the end you are just saying "buy and hold"?? Like weather 20%, 30%, 50% declines, etc. as it eventually always goes higher? OK, that's fine, but we don't need all the nonsense. You could just say that it is very unlikely for someone to beat the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis (very few do over a multi-year period of time), so simply "buy and hold" the indices and don't work so hard on beating them. That's all you are actually saying. It reads like the market is never falling, which is idiocy, but what you mean to say is "buy and hold" will work better for you.