Look, every bull cycle comes with it's own "V" cheerleaders. They were there in the early 2000, in 2008, and now. It's what it is. That will never change. But then on the flip side, you also have these pathological permabears that are always shorting the market, regardless of how strong the trend is. So it all checks out in the end. And the cycle starts all over again. Ad infinitum.
I have to say I'm bearish as fu*k and will say the s&p is headed to 5000 and eventually 4000 but I do believe that Wednesday will be like a coiled spring tightly wound and ready to catapult...I do believe this heavy selling will be switched off as equities skyrocket after Wednesday. I think there are way way wayyy too many people anticipating a sell on this news that it will actually lead to buying....however if there is a jump in the markets it will be just another opportunity to take profits. ....
I understand your statement here. And it happens to everyone when the V continues over a long period. But today our situation is this: Going back and then bringing it to the current Clinton was in office during the first big wallstreet bubble. Created upon new,cutting edge technology and his efforts to cut spending (especially military) and reduce deficits. But he also had low interest rates compared to Carter and Reagan. During Carter and part of Reagan we had very bad inflation in USA. But, because of spending cuts, low inflation, low interest rates and new technology, He had a very very good economy going generally. He managed to keep the bubble alive untill is last day in office 2000. These were the first really good trading years..even for new traders. Bush inherited a badly bursting bubble and put immense pressure on the Fed to reverse the crashing market. The Fed botched the process and reduced interest rates far too low too quickly. This created a massive bubble in real estate and real estate stocks. Again, we had low interest rates and a bustling economy thanks to real estate. Bush managed to keep this radically toxic bubble alive until the end of his second term 2008. These were also very good trading years especially in real estate and real estate related stocks. Obama inherited a bursting real estate bubble and basically a bankrupted USA. This was the first great shorting opportunity of modern traders and even new traders made bank shorting. It took Obama all of his two terms to fix and recover and repair the Bush damages. Interest rates stayed very very low. But the economy was not good at all. The fed was buying all the bonds that existed (Quantitative Easing and massive printing of US Dollars). This began the massive USA DEBT and the massive PRINTING of US DOLLARS that we have had over many years now. This eventually created another great opportunity for bullish trading but required skills as it was complex situation. So..generally we have established that Low interest rates, Low Inflation, bustling economy and low US sovereign Debt are the earmarks for good bullish trading opportunities. Trump inherited a good economy thanks to the repairs under Obama. However, US DEBT had grown massively. Interest rates were also still very low. This was the first time since 2000 that no president has inherited a bubble crashing. This is where current traders learned their strategy that is being used currently. Even tho Trump inherited a very good economy and low interest rates, he refused to allow the Fed to normalize interest rates and stop Bond buying (dollar printing). This setup a situation for inflation to eventually develop. It was a key point is the US economy and financial structure. Interest rates needed to normalized and printing needed to be stopped. The economy stayed good, but very few trading opportunities occurred in FANG type stocks or in the general indexes. The trading that occurred under Trump's first term was mostly US Dollar, Gold, Oil. Oil dropped radically. Gold started rising and the US Dollar started dropping. Biden inherited a good economy and low interest rates but covid emerged. Nationwide longterm lockdowns required massive Stimulus, Printing, Bond Buying, longterm unemployment payments, massive healthcare spending and Vaccine research spending and vaccine purchase spending. Interest Rates stayed very low. All of these factors came together to create bubbling inflation. Very outta control Inflation. And it grew the US NATIONAL DEBT into untold high levels. This era was what many traders considered the greatest bullish trading in history, Peak trading..Blow off Top Trading. This period built some of the most bubbled up stock prices in modern history. Stocks like Tesla and NVDA bubbled to outrageous levels. Trump inherited a massive stock bubble. A massive National Debt. Interest Rate levels that need to rise more, not be lowered. All of this points to a Bursting of the Current Bubble. Traders see this as a great opportunity to short. Probably short for a year. Until the charts show that the bubble has deflated. There will be no quick repair. No quick reflation of stocks. The stocks had risen to massive over-bought levels. Trump realizes he needs to cut spending massively to reduce the national debt. He is starting to realize that interest rates wont be coming down. The Fed has stopped bond buying. Has stopped printing. Again..most of the trading opportunities will be in Oil, Gold and the US Dollar and to short the stock market. v-shape..if you like to buy the V as a strategy..buy the V in Gold, gold ETF, gold indexes or Gold ETF 0DTE calls.
"Even tho Trump 1.0 inherited a very good economy and low interest rates, he refused to allow the Fed to normalize interest rates and stop Bond buying (dollar printing). This setup a situation for inflation to eventually develop. It was a key point is the US economy and financial structure. Interest rates needed to normalized and printing needed to be stopped'' Trump 2.0 is fairly responsible for where we are today. If Trump 1.0 would have allowed Interest Rate Normalization..then during Biden, when covid hit, the Fed would have had better tools to deal with the covid situation. They could have aggressively reduced interest rates and this would have allowed less stimulus and less printing. Inflation would be more tame. By this year, inflation would have been pretty low. Interest rate reductions would have made much more sense. Tariffs may not have created so much inflation. Trump should realize this and try to learn from this mistake. Learning would include ''not reducing rates'' until inflation comes full under control.
And of course Goldman Sachs now chimes in with their prediction we after the fact markets have taken a down turn... Everything they are predicting should send equities into a bear market. In a note Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.” The firm raised its forecast for inflation this year to 3.5%, cut its GDP outlook to just 1% and raised its unemployment view to 4.5%. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tar...-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.html
With this fake drop in the overnight futes, we either: A)Reverse it and green by market open B) Reverse and turn green during the trading session. Today will be some kind of trade-able bottom and I expect a nice green rip to start off April.