Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Discussion in 'Trading' started by makloda, Jan 27, 2007.

  1. lol. It’s up every day now. Just melts up. No pullbacks allowed, no volatility. The overwhelming majority of days are like this. If you watch this thing like I do, you will see it destroying shorts over and over again. Every blue moon it gets whacked, bur quickly recovers with endless green days. You know by the end of April it will be at or near ATH. So there is no risk. Even when it drops it's always a very fast V.
     
    #27701     Mar 25, 2025
  2. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    History never repeats exactly. So it will be lower, or even a lot higher

    I would go for a lot higher. NASDAQ 100k!
     
    #27702     Mar 25, 2025
  3. Businessman

    Businessman

    We don't even have fully self driving cars yet. A single use case self driving Robot car seems to me much easier than a general purpose android.

    So I think C3P0 is at least 25 years away.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2025
    #27703     Mar 25, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  4. schizo

    schizo

    Quit repeating yourself like a broken record. :sneaky: And what do you mean no one can answer? I can clearly remember saying the market will reverse on at least 3 occasions (and it did). And every single time I made such a claim, you flat out refused to believe me.

    So I say once more: One of these days, and I sense it ain't that far off, you will be greeted with a rude awakening. All hell will break loose, something far worse than 2000 or 2008. And trust me, I've been there both times and they weren't what you might imagine.
     
    #27704     Mar 25, 2025
  5. schizo

    schizo

    As much as I love your enthusiasm, you obviously don't know how to read the damn chart. Does the following chart look bullish to you? We just turned a corner. This in no way indicates the bull run has started. It could turn out to be a dud, in which case there's a high probability of another downtrend (aka dead cat bounce).

    upload_2025-3-25_14-35-47.jpeg
     
    #27705     Mar 25, 2025
  6. I was around in the market in2008. 2000 I wasn't into the market yet. (don't want to give away my age). The point is how the market can just suddenly go from volatility. to nothing just like that. That's what no one can explain. There were days during the stretch where QQQ lost $4-5 in the final minute of the day. Now you are watching paint dry. The thing sits at the same price for hours and they drop it like 50-75 cents just to V it. So when you watch the market go up day after day with most of the gains coming off reversals or overnight gaps, the average green day there is not much happening intraday unless you are fighting for pennies. The money is made just holding for the swing and buying those dips at critical support levels.

    Think of it like this: Right now the market refuses to go down. Every day is green, almost every hour is green. It gaps up, it buys every dip and volality is gone. How does it reignite? Obviously there will be some point in the future where it will dip again, but it could be months away.

    That's another point. The drops happens in a very orderly fashion, it is fought at every step of the way and then when it ends, it ends. It's just gone and you couldn't even possibly dream of getting a red day. So why question, is how on earth would this go down again. given it lost all the bearish momentum and possibility? During those 3 weeks there was a clear difference to the market. But as we see, once it ends it Doesn't ever come back. That's the thing. If one could explain how you are going to get that selling again I'm all ears. If the selling was real, there would have been more of a panic, but clearly it wasn't as we are just going to keep pumping every day now again. That's my point. That's why it would be the greatest upset imaginable because what is the real catalyst that would bring it down? What ever they sold to you 3 weeks ago doesn't matter anymore. Market could easily hit new ATH and no one would bat an eye.
     
    #27706     Mar 25, 2025
  7. It does because it broke the downtrend, and we know the market has a heavy V bias. If you drew some moving averages, you would see that during the downtrend it was very good at hitting the trendline and failing, but since we bottomed it's going straight up again. We had that test last week and they couldn't keep the market down. Only issue is we are back to 200 day MA so it obviously has to break that, but no reason it shouldn't. I am big into charts and I have looked back many years. It almost never goes back down with this setup. Once it's over it's over. There's a higher chance of a V than it has of going back down and breaking the lows.

    If you pull up a Monthly chart, which I am a big believer in... The candle is being saved just like it did in August. We have a dominant uptrend that it refuses to break no matter what. If the monthly changed I would be the first to tell you, but it can't. It's impossible to break that uptrend.

    It lost the catalyst and the volatility. Would take an insane upset for it to go lower from here.
     
    #27707     Mar 25, 2025
  8. schizo

    schizo

    As always, I respect your opinion but your level of chart analysis is pretty dismal. This is the monthly chart of NDX. You can see the uptrend was clearly violated this month. Previously, the lows all held up above the trendline (arrows). But, for the first time, it traded below the trendline. Also worth noting is if this month's candle closes below last month's low, it will be especially concerning.

    upload_2025-3-25_16-52-24.jpeg
     
    #27708     Mar 25, 2025
    nitrene likes this.
  9. christhesquid

    christhesquid

    Holy shit. Outstanding technical analysis, @schizo. Truly awe inspiring.
     
    #27709     Mar 25, 2025
  10. dismal? lmao. The monthly candle isn't done yet. 4 days to go and odds are it goes up and the tail is even longer. Heck it can even make up the $14 and close green, we will have to see. It's not violated if it happens intra-candle lol. It's how it closes. Like in August, we have a super long tail.
     
    #27710     Mar 25, 2025
    EqtTrdr likes this.