I think it's part of the phenomenon how the market can just go from volatile to zero volatility meltup just like that. You quickly get to the point where it's impossible for this to go down and you know it's not going to go down again for some time. I think it's also this idea about how many think that when you get a mini selloff, people overreact. Some panic and think this time is different when it's not. it's never any different! No selloff is every sustainable ever, no matter what the "cause" that is given. It also confirms the idea that we are in a forever bull market, where even the pullbacks are completely staged and never last long. I think once you see the market for what it is, you feel differently. We had some volatility for about 3 weeks. There were some large intraday moves. Now it's gone and will be difficult to get back. The VIX is below 20. It always happens this way. We know that at some point pretty soon this will be back at ATH. Just think about how difficult it will be to get an actual red day. So to conclude, even if we take a hit, it is kind of like we survived and now know that we got great prices and can look forward to easy gains. We know that whatever damage was done will quickly be erased by this mega bull.
What's interesting is how it follows the trend line on the way down. Like every gap up or bar fails at the same trendline and it's always fascinating how a min bear trend can work. When has there been any point where the V wasn't answered though? The other problem is the shorts busted too early. We see this time and time again, how monthly candles always get saved. They always have large tails. When was the last large red candle (monthly) that tried to break a strong uptrend that actually closed near the low? I can't find many if any. So it's always a stick save. Look, if there was any way that this was a head fake and then were to drop the next 4 days to close the monthly near the lows it would be the most stunning, shocking thing ever in the history of the market. It won't happen, because it never does. That's why I can be so confident and post. If it were to happen (it 99% won't) that would change my thinking. But there's no chance. You all realize the SPY is only down 2% for the year, the Q's down 4 and the dow actually flat. LMAO. That alone shows you how impossible it is to bring this market down.
That's what a lot of people are hoping, another repeat of the past. But this could easily turn out to be a dead cat bounce. I guess we'll just have to see. Listen, we've been through this debate already. In fact, on many occasions. Each time, you retorted with the same premise that this market is too strong to stay down. Well, we've had many small selloffs since last year. And one of these days, it's gonna really sell off without looking back. And you and your irresponsible friends will pay dearly for your blind optimism.
I know, and you deserve to be right once, but the market just doesn't work like that. Once the sellers leave it's hard to get them to come back because no selloff is real. But anyways, you will try again the next time we get some kind of selloff. You are right that we've had quite a few, even if they just end in a V every time.
So the Nasdaq would have to hit 70,000 by end of 2027, for it to repeat what it did in the last few years of the dot com bubble. Maybe it can hit 30,000 by then, but I can't see it going to 70,000 unless there is another tech/ai breakthrough/hype cycle that ignites another bubble before then.
I still don't get how we actually had the drop in the first place. You can't even buy a $2 pullback. They should make a documentary and call it an out of body experience. Like how does this thing actually ever go down? No one can answer.
You put skin on that with an AI that can replicate any human mannerisms, and you have a Pam Anderson french maid, a Rodney Dangerfield golfing buddy, the Dude bowling partner or the T-800 shopping assistant. If you missed the 90's bubble, this one with the AI and magic money (crypto), could be even better.
The QQQ is trading below levels from around nine months ago. This current market is not the rocket ship you think it is.