Hmmmmm......everytime i think the markets get a day like Friday i feel all hell is going to break loose and that the beginning of a long term bear market is setting up but im wrong 97% of the time... of course it never does, but this time it feels like all hell is going to break loose....... We are going to see insane volatility i believe all year long. I mean off the charts volatility only because Trump now is in office and with threats of tarriffs, inflation and i believe higher unemployment we are going to see massive volatility .... Of course as soon as you think we are going 1 way it reverses entirely in the other direction.
This is going to be a force stopper.....don't be surprised by a solid 10% drop in the Qs. Get ready for massive volatility
Here come the negative predictions Just said January marks the highs for this year!!! In short, stocks aren't the bargain they were back at the end of 2022. A lot may need to go right for them to deliver yet more gains without the help of rate cuts or ramping business spending. That's got Kass nervous. "Going into this year, I believed the S&P's 2025 upside was about +5% (not intended to be precise!), and the downside was between -10% and -15%," said Kass in a post in his diary on TheStreet Pro on Friday. "The move towards the higher end of my year's forecast earlier this week substantially eroded the reward/risk ratio (even further) to virtually zero upside and 15%+ downside." That's not a great recipe for risk-takers. Kass thinks January will mark the year's high, particularly for the so-called magnificent seven tech stocks. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/veteran-fund-manager-unveils-eye-popping-s-p-500-forecast
Futures open In less than 10 mins...after Friday's close and high volatility futures might continue that sell off in the overnight session.... No more free money
The markets are more likely to close positive on Monday than negative. But another down day would be good for trading volatility. The higher the volatility and VIX the better for short term traders. But I don't think this recent sell off is the start of this years 10% correction.
I agree with you on the volatility. Another down day would probably spike the vix to 20+, that makes for great trading. I sold a naked call on UVIX weeks ago and its been printing me money, however Friday I erased some gains but still up. Think I will buy it back tomorrow and take profits and wait for UVIX to surge above 40 to make another trade in shorting volatility. Got way too complacent
I think the odds of a more "normal" year with a lot volatility is likely, however the positive January return probably means a higher market by years end. I heard on Friday part of the drop was a potential new strain of Covid from China. That explains the temporary rise in MRNA PFE stocks. Trump brings massive volatility with his game theory ploys in foreign policy. If Trump can get a substantial tax cut or actual meaningful deregulation, that would reduce volatility just like in late 2017 to early 2018. Then came Volmageddon in February & the tariffs in March 2018 and volatility skyrocketed. If I remember correctly from Black Friday 2017 until early February 2018, volatility got crushed and the markets were up almost every day. VIX went from 8.5 on Black Friday 2017 to 50+ on Feb 6 2018.
There's no such thing as normal with the 0DTE, coke addict market. Volatility just gets turned off like that and it's hard to re-ignite. We will never see volatility again like we had in the past. What we will see are incredibly short duration events that last maybe a few hours or a day and a half and then you know what is going to happen. It's very tough to stay short in this market as you will just get ruined without warning and before you know it we are back at ATH. Nothing changed with Friday. We've had it before and it's just a very short duration event. When it ends you have to expect the V. Look at today and that first hour plunge. Often the kiss of death for bears. When have you ever seen a 1st hour drop be sustained? Never. The days where it sells off they have to trick you and make you work for it. When it drops so easily it can never sustain. We had the classic 10:15 low.
Don't speak too soon. Market is headed alot lower. The qqq will be under 500 and soon to be 475!!! It's coming.
Even with an R govt, a shutdown looks likely. What's the deal with the bond vigilantes? Are they talking up debt levels/ debt issuance?