It's a fair number. Obviously I can''t bet real money to an anonymous internet stranger, but what I could promise is a permanent ban or delete my account if it ever happens. The QQQ would have to go to like 430. Won't ever see that again in our lifetime.
20% declines from all time highs occur about once every 5 years on average. (That's the S&P, nasdaq might be a little bit more frequent) That would put the next one in 2027 based on that one stat alone. Ofcourse it's an average figure and it could come sooner or later than 2027. 2027 is also when this cyclical bull market could end based on the 18 year cycle, that started in 2009.
I looked at historical $SPX & $COMPX data and there used to be a lot more 20% drawdowns in the 1980s-2010s especially for the NASDAQ Composite. From 2010-2025 the $COMPX has only had 3 20+% drawdowns. The tariff induced 2018 mini bear market, the Covid bear market of 2020 which lasted 3 months & the Fed induced 11/2021 to 11/22 bear market: I guess it coincides with the massive outperformance of the original FAANG stocks: Here's an interesting chart. It is the 1928-1980 $SPX. It is amazing how volatile the post-war market was considering the US had global dominance of industries: Looks to me like 7 20+% drawdowns from 1954-1974. 1954 was the first time the $SPX broke above the 1929 highs. The 1973-1974 bear market was a vicious 49% drawdown over 22 months. I guess that was the Oil shock collapse of the Nifty Fifty.
We have had two periods of relative calmness since the crash of 1987. 1988 through 1997 And from say late 2009 till 2018. But 1998 through 2008 had multiple bear markets and a bubble. And 2018 till now has been pretty crazy as well, the last seven years has had multiple bull and bear markets.
Hope everyone has their snacks ready becsuse it's going to one fu*k of a volatile open. Bitcoin is even having its own fun dropping back under 100k to around 97k ...wait till that breaks 90k!!!!!!
Interest rate stability and QE between 2009 and 2017. Meant no bear market during that time. Not sure why there was no major correction between 1988 and 1997. I guess the crash of 1987 had everyone fearful for the next 10 years.
Hedge funds bet billions on market crash in Trump’s America Goldman Sachs reports a surge in short bets against US stocks https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/31/hedge-funds-bet-billions-against-trumps-america/