In 4 months SPY has risen more than $100 with the single biggest drawdown being only $13 (which is about a 2.5 % decline). For SPY to correct 5% it would have to drop about $25. You really think that will happen? Sure it's happened in the past, but we have never had such a risk free market before. And NVDA strong earnings totally justifies it being worth 2 trillion? OK sure. I don't believe it should be valued that high, but it doesn't matter what I think since it will continue to go up since it can't be stopped.
Of course it will. Why wouldn't it? The market corrected 10 % last fall prior to this recent rally. Here's the latest rally starting late October last year plotted with a green line. Logarithmic scale. As can be easily seen - this latest rally is just a small blip on a long term trend up which is the norm for the US indices. So, no, you're wrong on both counts. We've most certainly have had 'such a risk free market' in the past and we will correct again some time in the future. When is anyone's guess.
I feel better about the S&P 500 short here. Ditch the crypto short. $SPX is showing a significant upper Chanel perfume squirt on the monthly linear scale. And the Dow still rides the 1929/2000 upper channel, close enough for jazz here. Hopefully Rick comes back at the exact bottom to enlighten us.
SMCI up 48% in the past week....1 week ..... The trajectory of stocks and entire market is something we have mever ever seen.....these aren't normal markets....
I heard tonight if you strip out amd Broadcom and nvdia from the nasdaq, the nassdaq would actually be under performing the s&p So once again only a handful of stocks running the market.
I missed the early-week dip and it is turning out to be as painful as one would imagine. If the FOMC is as timid as is expected, we could be looking at a 2017 or 2019 scenario. which were melt-up years..
Volmageddon 2.0 could be right around the corner. Of course we would need a VIX move of 9 to 50+ in 4 weeks.