This, I agree with. Yes. If the tariffs are cancelled, we will have some nice UP. But until then, the UP will not be nice.
I am confused though, if you think this why not join in long? FED is pushing in money and Trump has made it clear he will sign whatever to keep the market going, trend is still up and this time of year is bullish too. It seems like everything is setup for a continued grind hire. No need to risk missing the rally. Curious, what is the basis for not being long the market?
Because the FED does not matter when the trade war comes into focus. Trade War trumps Fed. I have been risking this rally since spring of this year. And it has been a cautionary tale. Every time I stick my neck out, Trade war shit comes out and drops the market 10%. So fuck this bull. It is genuine in feeling and foundation, but the wild-card on Penn Ave.is too much for me now. You want to try it? Go ahead! Go long right now on a Dec equity future contract. Go on! One wafer thin little minty mint of a contract. It is wafer theeeen! It is zero risk! If you believe in this bull so whole-heartedly, you will just do it.
Damn sorry to hear that. Ya i am 100% long and then buy dips with leverage but only go a maximum of 200% long in the futures on pull backs. was down 30% in December of 2018 but thankfully market bounced back quickly.
no long but less comfortable with it but FED and White house are wanting the market to rise so I don't think it is possible for things to really drop until a huge policy change.