Anyone who shorts here is basically looking for a binary outcome where this localized support area is breached and we make new lows. However the potential for a short covering rally + actual smart money buying is a real risk here for the short side. If things are so doomed why are the yen and gold selling off? The market isn’t just going to give people what they want so easily.
Well I should have used quotes, ie “smart money” because there’s plenty of times that crowd gets rocked too but i’d say the deep pocket entities that are not afraid to start getting long or short while the rest of the market is obssessed with the opposite outcome. Take an internal poll on how many you think are bearish at these levels (200sma break, only x times in history, etc) and what the expectation is for things to happen here. Then balance that against how many times something that “should happen” didn’t happen. We’re in a new regime for sure but some things never change.