I would be willing to bet the VIX will gap up 3.00% on Monday open. Seen this so may times, when the indexes are soaring higher.
Yes.... I can remember clear as day years ago when I was going long during the euphoria of those big market bull days and one day out of the blue everything fell apart, lucky I had short positions on but the new long positions I had taken completely tanked.....it was UWM QLD and a few others....and last summer I jumped into TNA around $90...you can see the post here...I literally rode it down to Feb 2016 lows around 35 and sold it recently about 2 weeks ago at $90,...since I have sold it its up almost $20 a share!!! Do you really think I'm going to fall for this all over again? Come on! Why would I jump back into TNA at $109 a share when just a month ago it was trading under $70!!! I have patience, I'm short now....will the Dow get to 20000 next week...yes it will, but for a continuation uninterrupted rally is ludicrous..... Last week I jumped into SOXL after a nearly 20% drop at $48.50 and sold it today above $58....I wouldn't doubt it we get a 3-5% pull back in January/February.....Next week the markets will cheer the .25% rate hike and that alone will send the Dow to 20000.. And check this out: I work with someone who recently asked me where he could open up an account to place $5000 to start investing... I laughed and said oh boy this is the end soon....he doesn't know what stocks are and doesn't have a dime in the market but now all of the sudden hes interested in the fun bull market.... Also yesterday I had another person show me this picture of a house for sale for around $50-$60k ...he knows how to do carpentry and is great with construction but has never ever bought a house, he's in his late 30s and is now seeing his friends flipping houses...he was saying he was thinking of buying it and flipping it for $125-$150k I laughed again to myself and said yep here we go again!!!!
A simple "Yes" would have sufficed. But, I too had the "shoeshine boy" experience of someone asking me about stocks. I replied back and asked him for a job.
Man, you rode TNA down from $90 to $35? That's damn painful. Yes, Russell is the ultimate "risk on" index. Up 17-18% now I'd guess. Vertical moves always. One thing that I will say is that each and every time there is some event that potentially challenges the "status quo"...take your pick...European debt crisis (some country or another on the verge)...Washington budget crisis...Brexit...Trump...Italy, etc, etc...Each and every time the exact same thing unfolds but every acts as if they are shocked that it resolves the same way... Yes, at some point in the future, the "binary" will resolve the other way..It will be the ultimate mind f***, but the no brainer trades are to always bet on the upside (hold your nose if you have to)...or play it with options.
The end will be near when that guy turns his $5000 to $100K+ and then quits his day job to trade full time.