Hahaha cracked me up when spotted the bear with a riffle eventually. Very relevant to how we observe TA pictures, sometimes we see and other times we don't.
Death Cross on Naz weekly, which was the last index to do so and that after rate has been lifted. So perhaps things aren't as good as statistics suggest? I've never believed in 5% unemployment figure, even if it was to be true, a lot of those jobs aren't well paid ones.
if 1970s holds this has the potential to make an inverse h&s left shoulder established in the beginning of 2015, bottom in august, and right shoulder in progress i just don't think a top is that easy to call, especially when everyone thinks the top is in....it's usually the opposite but we'll see
7 years of "conditioning" with the Fed put as a foundation for so many strategies...I agree that it is very difficult to say "the top is in" and a large part of that is that this is a very "hollowed out" market...Liquidity generated by the "trap and harvest" nature of neverending "v" bottoms and lately some cascading declines.
This fed since Bernanke, has been a relative hawk, allowing /conditioning markets to adjust over time to a divergent monetary policy. The course was stayed for a lengthy taper and delayed a few months maybe , by China concerns. Yeah i know, at one time more than 50 bp had been priced in for 2015 but remember, 1 month bills were priced at 0 basis points this past summer. Blah lah blah..... One thing I wont forget or underestimate is a cental banks ability to thwart a selloff and CRUSH shorts. The minutes (cant be as unanimously hawkish and positive as portrayed) may acknowledge some concerns that may actually be "playing out" at the time. Could be dovish. Do we retest the recent August lows/ officialcorrection ? Until then..... For now.... For today....
They will do their best to keep markets from discounting by 20% (widely accepted end of trend), as then they simply won't be able to hold the market. This effort isn't limited to FED(PPT), but is in the interest of all investment houses. Hence when Dow Jones dipped to -20% in August (from ATH) it was immediately bid up. At the time I was too optimistic to expect continuation of the slide, yet correction is still quite possible.