Right, but what I'm saying is that the Aug decline started like this, on the Wednesday of Yellen's comments (Aug 19th, I believe)...Again, I'm not going to predict it turns into Aug 24th, just that the "speed" of this decline is similar...lots of trendlines broken, etc, etc...and that failed re-test up around 2100-10 area...
Probably another repeat performance of last night...Let me venture a guess...maybe 2066-67 area on ES in the middle of the night.
The fact that they slipped the first hint in the middle of the night during Thanksgiving holiday (China 5% drop) suggests a nod and a tip to the downside below the 2100 to 2050 channel but all that would do is set-up an inaction instead of a hike on Dec 16? A hike in this type of environment would allow another Aug 24. Regardless, looks like the dip will continue for some days (abit mostly in the middle of the night and coming back as the NY open approaches and then much more controlled and slow shallow downward move during NY session). Watch out for Sunday night Asian session. And, it will be choppy and dangerous in all three (Europe, Japan, NY) through Dec and into Feb.
Good point and it was discussed on this thread late last week when Romik and a few others commented that there was no US reaction, hence it wasn't bearish...but this market can shrug off external factors during "risk on" and then Yellen can go "hawkish" up at the highs and the market suddenly cares again... Seems that if we find our way back down to 2000 level (Nov 15-16 lows), then perhaps another no hike scenario...
I haven't checked in for a while but glad to see the midnight rally crew is doing well. I have my own twist on it buying at 330pm eastern and selling at 2am eastern. Anyone care to guess why the rally has worked so well for so long?
BTW: Did you guys see that move in the Bund today? Just shy of a month of rallying slayed in a single session: