I think the sad part is that there is this co-dependant relationship that is no good. Traders/investors have been trained to not go against the FED or CB's. But these institutions cannot in any way ever predict doom and gloom. In many ways, it would lead to panic and cause more harm. Even if the outlook is grim, they have to put a positive spin on it. So even though there are perhaps some smart people within these institutions, their hands are bound from saying it like it is. The trouble is that the public expects that the government won't steer them wrong, and I think that for the most part, the government would like it if it was always able to do good things (of course their own survival is more important than that of everyone else, but that is a whole different issue). The trouble comes when the government realizes that they can't control it as well as they thought they could. Being honest about the situation would cause panic, so that is not an available option. The only option is to lie and hope for the best. The trouble is that the public has expectations that the government will act in everyone's best interest. First of all, there is never any way to govern that is in everyone's best interest (someone has to take it for the team), and second, the best interests for the majority is to not create panic. So the only option is to lie. In many ways, you can't blame the government any more so than you can blame a person for lying who committed a crime and pleading innocent. You expect each accused person to say innocent and hope for some miracle of getting off by way of a technicality, just like the government prays for a miraculous turnaround, while being fully aware behind closed doors that things don't look good. When you are bound by the idea that you cannot create panic as the highest principle, lying is the only option.
Yes, it is...their "jawboning" does create the requisite squeeze's and, realistically, the Fed's flip-flopping has had alot to do with this massive trading range that we've been in for the past 9-12 months...Yellen can go "hawkish" at 2100 since the market has a cushion of a few hundred points, whereas when we were down at 1900, breaking that big 6 year uptrend with a potential to hit those levels you highlighted a few months ago was not an option for them.
The real agenda is never disclosed to the masses. Period. Look at UK, on October 4th PM Cameron stated that if Russia was to bomb terrorists in Syria it would lead to more radicalisation and more terrorist acts. Few days ago he called people that oppose bombing of terrorists in Syria "terrorists sympathisers".
What looks like a double top is a trap, to grab more shorts and obtain fuel for buying high later on, aka stops.
Fair enough, but I think its important enough to talk time frames. You say you're a swing trader, so perhaps this selling in the past few days doesn't change your long term outlook. But day traders are obviously making a killing shorting today. Likewise, maybe the day trader will try for a short again if we make it to 2100, but he perhaps won't have a huge stop if it does break all time highs, and might have good rules for when to switch to being long if he sees shorts not working. Much of your forecasting that the market will make all time highs in 2016 and that we are still in a bull run isn't of that great importance to a day trader... would you agree? Saying this, what is your holding period for whatever it is that you trade if I may ask? You mention swing trades... can some of these be open or closed within in the same hour? Perhaps several hours? Or are you waiting days for your trades to play out?
Another market temper tantrum to scare Yellen out of raising rates? The speed of this decline is on par with mid-August. (not implying it turns into that debacle)