And that's why there's a trade, because what you see may not be what others see. It doesn't mean both sides are insane are wrong but it does mean there's the potential for a trade. A recent rally back up to retest where we were isn't exactly bullish to me. Locally or short-term bullish yes (it was), but similar things happened back in October and plenty of other times over the past year where whatever drop happened and was BTFD'ed. The market then went sideways for half a year and dumped. What's a better risk/reward? Buying bombed out commodities (which can of course go lower) crushed by the dollar (and debatably, demand vs supply) or buying topped out stocks driven by emperor's new clothes buying and artificial corporate fuel? Also *earnings*, looking at the past earnings season countless other pieces of other fundamental economic data and you're telling me you're really looking to buy here? If the Fed came out and convincingly said "we will absolutely not do anymore more QE" would you be so willing to buy?
There are magnets above this market. I have not, in long duration, traded often in markets with magnets above. I have traded markets with magnets below a few long stretches though. But I am learning...always learning. And, well, if there are magnets pulling (they have been very strong lately) then all one can do is ride the upward movements as long as they last.
Careful with your bias, evident from your nick and your posts, even a doji year is giving you a boner. Market has been in a bull market for over 6 years, the present year is simply a consolidation in an uptrend, that has offered superb volatility (for bulls and bears) and opportunity for the year ahead, mostly bulls. When the year was red and panic was high back in August/September I was one of the few on this board calling for the lows, so don't take my words as some ET dude acting as guru, I do know my shit, actually, very well; feel free to study old posts and research my bias in various instruments. When it's time to position short I will most definitely notice it, that time is not here yet and don't forget that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, regardless of rate hikes or earnings during dissapointing quarters, which can obviously and are gamed all the time with buybacks and accounting "magic". Price does not lie, fundamentals might, especially your version of them. Word of advice for next year, you better place me on ignore because I'm gonna have a field day with the bears of this board when we lift off.
Like to hear your thoughts regarding your call on lift off and why you are so confident in your call. TIA