No idea. I just think we give back some of the gains for the week. More than 1.5% would be incredibly bad.
You are right, it is probably not worthwhile for me to post here. The conspiracy theories, crash calls, negative aspirations about world economies, and rather one sided takes on financial news dominate this thread. The "mocking" on this thread gets most active when US indexes drop, whether it's the mysterious "dumb money" investors or the US Fed or some other target the guys on here like to rail about. It's 2015, and by now we were supposed to have SPX around 400-800, hyperinflation, massive unemployment, and Gold well over $3000 an ounce. That is, if some of the more active posters on this site were to be believed.
While I have been wrong periodically, I do believe some of the calls on this site will ultimately bear fruit. Maybe no one will profit from them etc. That is fine. I have been wrong many times, but it is the future that is within my control. China is trading at 40% premium to the same shares in Hong Kong on AVERAGE. (And on a single name basis, more crazy.) Therefore, it is very rational to say that China might drop -40% at some point in the next few years, even if no one can trade it and no one can profit from it, and bears are all so dumb that we will die a million deaths. But it is not a conspiracy theory -- it is basic finance that the same economic interest should be priced the same. But sure, -40% in China sounds like a crash call, when will they ever learn right? When then bother having a Harvard case study on the mispricing of Delta airlines/Priceline in 1999, when China/HongKong is 100x more crazy? Or perhaps we are writing that case study right now. You surely see the same thing -- you talk about Canada, and everyone knows there is a real estate bubble. The China slowdown has hurt Canada through commodity prices. That is why you are in cash, and that is a good thing. Maybe that is the lesson. Never short -- just buy or hold cash. If so, just state it. We can all learn something.
Another nonsensical post...The title of this thread is the exact opposite of what you claim to be true...Rickshaw Man is always bullish...While others might change their opinions based on the market, the only one that you are really take aim at is S2007S, whom I might add, is someone that you constantly follow around this site in an effort to bully him into silence...Show me a collection of these claims on this thread about those extreme forecasts...They don't exist... Now go back and read some of the good posts by Visaria, Max, PriceChange, i960 and stop with ridiculous b.s. Another thing worth noting...You seem to always take it personally if someone happens to be bearish...It speaks volumes about your lack of conviction in your own analysis...At any given time, you might find half the community bullish, the other half bearish...at extremes, the numbers skew to one side...But most of us notice that you go out of your way to try and flame anybody who happens to be bearish (and go further by exaggerating their bearishness)...If it troubles you so much that everybody isn't bullish all the time, then maybe you should stop coming here.
Yeah it does not seem right to, me the "gotta love zero risk part" comes in by being short ES & SPY IMO; I've built a short position starting ES 2035, suffering some heat but not concerned
I can't decipher what you just wrote aside from being short the ES from 2035...that takes some gonads though...being 50+ handles under water.
NoVoodoo might be replying to couple posts in his one statement. But yea, being generally bearish part might not have been directly in response to xandman's comment cuz xandman seems to trade on an even keel moving as the market does with ups and downs like Visaria does. And yea, it does seem the market may give some back Friday after a good run this weak Our thread has bulls, bears, traders that respond both long and short depending on the situation, position investors, medium term traders, day-traders, overnight traders and we talk about futures, options, indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs, and we have traders and investors from all around the world..... and that seems to be what a market really is...many people coming together with different strategies, different prospectives, buying and selling, sometimes holding long, sometimes exiting toward bonds. Its a valuable resource to me and I really enjoy posting and participating here. Its what I like most about this thread. The ability to post and talk about a position without concern of being stalked or threatened. To talk and post particularly with people who have a different outlook and hopefully we all learn a bit from each other. The zero risk subject line was written just so many months before one of the biggest SPX falls in many years and thus was proven quickly that both buying and selling makes a market.