Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Discussion in 'Trading' started by makloda, Jan 27, 2007.

  1. Visaria

    Visaria



    out at 2343, bodged it up, could have easily taken 2370
     
    #12481     Nov 13, 2015
  2. Visaria

    Visaria

    i went back in at 39... more commission for broker...grrr
     
    #12482     Nov 13, 2015
  3. i960

    i960

    Fun Friday eh guys? I personally think it'll become clearer and clearer that we're already entering into a recession - regardless of what all the "great job!" and other puff numbers show. Gotta wonder what the Fed will pull out of the hat this time. If they raise in Dec, which of course they won't, something will probably snap. If they wait and wait for economic improvement, they'll probably be waiting quite a long time.

    You can't just print your way out of '08 - eventually the piper gets payed.
     
    #12483     Nov 13, 2015
    romik and Pricechange like this.
  4. seems that is the way toppy markets behave...riding high and everything hunky dory, wildly bullish... then clues and flash numbers showing that the bullish theory is showing cracks which causes some panic and a decent sell-off....bottom of the sell-off comes some savior (this time our Fed) and market bounces back up to previous levels and maybe somewhat higher....then the first clues of cracks in the bullish theory shows more detail and truth, cracks begin to get wider, people slowly come to a realization that bullish run is at its top....then sell-off retraces, abet more slowly and much deeper and the beginning of a full-on bear market begins.

    We have soooo many clues here of a long cycle top in all things bullish. My final indicator was whether these super start-ups would hold high valuations and come to the IPO market with lofty prices and first day/week runs. This has quickly played out to the negative. My guess is that window has already been closed. I thought they might try to slide Uber and Airbnb through as we came back up to the top in Nov but I don't see any of that super start-up mania happening at all now. In fact, I see alot of early high valuation investors getting screwed here :(

    That was my last indicator of a continuing bull market.................

    somebody help us with a check list of "signs of a top"

    long growth stock sectors - earnings faltering
    traditional consumer stock sectors - earnings faltering
    industrial stock sectors - earnings faltering
    equipment stock sectors - earnings faltering (CAT was the leading indicator)
    financials in dire need of interest help that won't come
    commodities supercycle finished
    Global demand showing major problems
    Global oversupply
    IPOs in high growth sectors faltering badly
    Recent wildly popular IPOs falling below IPO price
    Very few and fewer heavy names holding up stock indices
    Fast Track Emerging Growth countries faltering badly
    World growth faltering
    General Retail faltering
    Hedge Funds cracking
    Super Star fund traders seeing large losses
    2 term presidential administration ending soon
    Desperate price hikes in necessary services such as insurance, healthcare, pharmaceutical, retail/fast casual "fad must haves"
    The very few retail/fast casual fad stocks cracking (Starbux, chipotle etc)
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2015
    #12484     Nov 13, 2015
  5. Put up a chart of the Dow 30 stocks (or some of the bigger names) over the weekend, or if you're bored, and look at what types of moves were required to get this market back up near the highs...It's truly remarkable what took place.
     
    #12485     Nov 13, 2015
  6. name one recession in the last 75 years that happened during ZIRP or a similar rates environment

    this is a period of stagnation; recessions happen when credit becomes harder to obtain
     
    #12486     Nov 13, 2015
  7. Then why did you choose "recession2016" as your alias?
     
    #12487     Nov 13, 2015
    i960 and Pricechange like this.
  8. hoping the fed raises before year's end :D
     
    #12488     Nov 13, 2015
  9. I'm not well versed in Japan's history, but are you telling me that Japan hasn't had one recession since it went to the zero bound?
     
    #12489     Nov 13, 2015
  10. BULL SHIT you just got called out
     
    #12490     Nov 13, 2015