Im taking that idea of 1700 as well. I don't think August 24/25th were the lows of the year....we are going further down the hole. Even it breaks to the upside Im still sticking with my opinion that markets are headed 30%+ lower and headed into a bear market!
if you play what i said correctly with options, it really doesnt matter Take my bet that we wont hit 1700 SPX in 2015, even money. Im backing my call with balls, yours?
I don't like time limits, hence I don't trade options. I am not backing my call with balls, just fair bit of money at stake.
Of course there is more than a 50% chance of a recession coming....who doesnt see this happening.... Better than 50% chance recession is coming: Analyst The odds of a global recession taking hold in the next 20 months are now better than 50 percent, The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar said Tuesday. "Central banks have guaranteed a messy outcome from the reversal of policy," the chief market analyst told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street.""There's going to be a recession when central bank policy reverses. It's inevitable." In Europe and Japan, central banks are in the midst of bond-buying programs aimed at propping up their economies, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has held its benchmark interest rates for short-term borrowing near zero since December 2008. Read MoreRobert Shiller: THIS is the sign we're in a bubble The Fed should raise its fed funds rates when it meets this week, or else the impacts will only get worse the longer it waits, Boockvar said. He expects the Federal Open Market Committee will do just that, and will soothe markets with dovish language that assures investors the pace of increases will be gradual. The short-term impact, he said, will not be much different than doing nothing. On the other hand, by not taking any action, the Fed would be telling markets there will be a time in the future better suited for monetary policy tightening, and the fact is there is no good time, Boockvar said. Investors should view a recession as a "healthy cleansing" that sets up the economy for a better recovery, rather than something to avoid at all costs, he added. Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, said he too expects the Fed to announce a rate rise Thursday. He believes a market selloff is primarily a short-term risk. "The question is, as we go further out, is this going to be a much more sustained hit to market psychology because the Fed has hiked?" he asked in a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "I'm not so concerned that that's the likely outcome at this point." Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, said investors awaiting a chance to buy stocks after they presumably dip on the central bank's announcement are missing an opportunity presented by the recent stock market selloff. Read MoreJeremy Siegel: How a Fed hike could boost stocks "If you agree ... that the bull market does not end with the first rate hike, and you think higher equity prices await us in the future, then the investment opportunity has already been presented to you," he told "Squawk on the Street." "The only question is how much further do equities have to run before the inevitable cycle runs its course?" Greenhaus said he no longer expects the Fed to announce a change in policy Thursday because markets are no longer expecting that outcome. He said central bankers do not want their first rate hike in more than nine years to be a surprise. Tom DiChristopher
No worries Rob Insana that guy from cnbc says there wont be any rate hike this week so keep buying stocks, the market should rally about 3% on this outcome by friday, should boost all stocks and create the ultimate rally, remember the fed will always bow down to wall street. and as they continue to do so they will only lose more and more and more and more credibility.......
If that headline is so true and accurate then how come after years and years and years and years we still have 0% interest rates and QE 1, QE 2 and QE 3???? Im going to say this once again, you cannot compare this market to any market in the past, this market is a market that no has ever witnessed or seen in their lifetimes.....there is no comparison to be made to past market cycles since this entire market cycle is a fed induced one..... Wall Street history says stocks can survive Fed rate hike Adam Shell 21 Mins AgoUSA Today 9 SHARES COMMENTS The words "Fed rate hike" strike fear into stock investors. They fear the party is over once the Federal Reserve starts boosting borrowing costs. But history shows the first rate hike – which the Fed is contemplating now and could come as early as Thursday – doesn't necessarily have to be a bull market killer. Sure, the start of a Fed rate-hike cycle – especially considering the last rate hike occurred June 29, 2006 – could cause more volatility (code words for violent market swings) and scares along the way. But history shows that stocks don't go down in a straight line after the Fed moves. Stock performance is mixed. In fact, the stock market has posted gains in all sorts of time periods following the Fed's so-called "lift-off" day. In the past six rate-hike cycles dating to 1983, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index declined on the day of the Fed's first rate increase three times, or 50% of the time. The biggest Day 1 loss was in February 1994, when the benchmark stock index cratered 2.3%, according to data from Birinyi Associates. In contrast, stocks jumped 2.3% after the first rate hike in January 1987 and 1.6% following the initial increase in June 1999. The cause for alarm this time around? The fact the Fed hasn't hiked rates in nearly a decade and has kept short-term rates near 0% for so long that investors and markets have become addicted to so-called cheap money. Some market pundits argue that low rates have been the key driver of the bull run in stocks the past 6½ years, a period when the broad U.S. market more than tripled in value. ‹ Cramer: How a rate hike could hurt economy Jeremy Siegel: How a Fed hike could boost stocks A $2 tril bet against Fed rate hike: CFO survey › But with the coming shift from an ultra-easy Fed to a less-accommodating Fed, the transition from a period of declining and record low interest rates to a rising-rate environment coupled with investors recent wariness following the stock market's first 10% correction since 2011 and signs of a significant slowdown in China, wariness is high on Wall Street. "A rate hike, with a stroke, ends this era," is the way Michael Hartnett, a global investment strategist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes the coming change in Fed policy. Some fear taking the economy off of so-called life support will cause market turmoil. Others say that doomsday scenario goes too far. "The latest bugaboo is one that has often been associated with corrections or the onset of bear markets: the start of a Fed rate hike cycle and rising bond yields," Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management said in a recent report titled, "Rising Rates Shouldn't End This Bull Market." "Many investors," Doll wrote, "believe that when rates rise, the party is over for stock prices. Historically, however, this has not been the case." Historical data from the past six rate-tightening cycles back up his claim. While two of the six cycles saw stocks lower a year after the initial rate hike, the average gain for the S&P 500 in all six periods was 2.6%. And two years after hike No. 1 the market was 14.4% higher, Doll's data show. Still, he points out there were bumps along the way. The stock market, on average, suffers a peak-to-trough decline of roughly 10% in post, rate-hike trading. If stocks do take a hit when the Fed hikes, it likely will be a short-lived drop and "prove to be an excellent buying opportunity," Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, argued in a report that stressed rate hikes "should be welcomed not loathed." His data show that corporate profits, U.S. economic growth and S&P 500 performance in past five rate-hike cycles have performed better than normal when the Fed is tightening, as those periods typically occur when the economy is doing well. What could dampen volatility this time around, market pros say, is that the Fed has said it will raise rates slowly in an attempt to minimize market disruption. There is a belief on Wall Street that the Fed will hike rates at every other meeting, a pace that is half the usual pace. In short, the speed and magnitude of tightening is most important. The Fed's current rate-hike cycle is also starting with yields (pegged at 0% to 0.25%) at much lower levels than the start of past tightening cycles. In the previous six rate-hike cycles the Fed's benchmark borrowing cost, known as the Fed Funds rate, was closer to 5%, on average, according to Nuveen Asset Management. The takeaway: Interest rates have a lot of room to run higher before becoming a major drag on economic growth. Maury Harris, global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, dubs the market's Fed angst, "Fedophobia." But, he says, "fears of the Fed are overdone." He cites a few reasons why investors should keep their fears in check. For one, monetary policy works with "long lags." That means economic growth and corporate earnings won't fall off a cliff overnight. In fact, "growth tends to accelerate early in Fed tightening cycles," he noted. Second, the Fed's unprecedented period of near zero rates "is likely to be followed by an equally unprecedented slow hiking cycle," Harris argues. So, unless inflation spikes and causes the Fed to move more aggressively than believed, the economy and markets should do fine despite the rate hikes, he believes. Typically, the stock market takes a big hit "only after repeated rate hikes," Harris noted. In fact, more aggressive rate-hike cycles that began in March 1998, June 1999 and June 2004 eventually led to recessions, BofA data show. But while the Fed can trigger a recession and bear markets with rate hikes, that occurs only when the Fed is aggressively combating inflation, which at the moment is not flashing warning signals.
got rid of my longs and i'm full short going into fomc, probably will cover right before 2pm thursday
NICE, Im still holding my SVXY, not selling it until after Thursday afternoon or Friday, I know the markets are going to move pretty wildly so Im holding on...Im up $7.00 a share on that, wish I went in with a lot more shares but decided to hold off and play it a little less risky since I know how volatile it can get, As I write this I'm ever so close to adding some CVOL, its trading around .75 cents, it tracks volatility as well and has sold off pretty hard the last day or so, thinking of getting in just for fun to see if I can make a few bucks on it, might by a couple of thousand shares ahead of the fed meeting.....