Got a feeling, tomorrow 2:30pm crash

Discussion in 'Trading' started by innovest_11, Oct 24, 2006.

  1. do you really think this is good advice? what put options have you purchased? we would like to see how it works out.
     
    #11     Oct 24, 2006
  2. kashirin

    kashirin

    I don't really think the sell off will be on fed.
    ALthough I have the different feeling that sell off will be on Democrats win.

    Do you think I should sell the next day after elections if it's happened or make a bet and sell several days before?
     
    #12     Oct 24, 2006
  3. True story - I was working for a broker in London and this 18 year old came in - he felt that the market was going to crash but he knew nothing about trading. He bought an out of the money put for £200. That was Thursday before Black Monday Oct19th 1987. He cashed in for over £13,000. He did the same thing again and I know this sounds hard to believe, but he lost it all. He's still trying to figure out what went wrong with his feeling. If the same thing happened you could score big time. When it happened it took everyone by surprise as far as fundamental reasons were concerned. Lots of post mortoms for years. Believe me, he was just lucky.
     
    #13     Oct 24, 2006
  4. I think that's bad advice. I trade what I see on the chart, not what I think. If you do well trading off of gut instinct that's good for you. :)
     
    #14     Oct 24, 2006
  5. blk

    blk

    LOL. That is a good one. One of the best around here at ET.
     
    #15     Oct 24, 2006
  6. In ROASO, Livermore often took trades based on gut feel. If I recall correctly, those were some of his most profitable trades. Would I do it?, hell no. Trade whats on the chart, probably the best advice.

    But if you have this feeling and don't take any action and it turns out you are correct, you are going to be killing yourself. So the next time you get a gut feel, you're probably going to remember the last time you had a gut feel and how much would you WOULD HAVE made if you followed it. So more than likely you'll take a huge position on this feeling and probably get killed. So you'll be back to kicking yourself again.

    Possible solution. Take a small position. Something that wont make you rich, but at the same time won't wipe your account out. If you're right maybe your on to something. If your wrong you satisfied the need to play your hunch and at the same time didnt blow your account out.
     
    #16     Oct 24, 2006
  7. A small correction is due soon, not a crash. The last time a TZOO and a couple of other stocks started moving swiftly to the upside this April/May it was a signal that we are headed for a short term correction.

    Akuma
     
    #17     Oct 24, 2006
  8. I think I saw a special on BBC that talked about our gut feelings. They usually are triggered by our minds when it sees a recurring pattern that we have seen before. Our subconscious is telling us something but our consciou mind just doesn't see it.

     
    #18     Oct 24, 2006
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    #19     Oct 24, 2006
  10. Shit, man, if I were in a burning building my spidey sense would be telling me "Feet do yo stuff!" 100% of the time.
     
    #20     Oct 24, 2006