So tell us something Einstein.... apart from exposing PSPR's typohave you told us anything new that hasnt already been discussed in this thread?
You got me covered bro!!! Pointing out the obvious difference between "Billion", and "trillion," must be a very rewarding life. Please tell me where i can start a gig like this. Apart from getting on PSPR's ass for inadvertently using the word "billion" instead of "Trillion" do you mind telling me how this thread would have been different, had Pspr, or myself used the word "trillion" as opposed to "billion?"
The CBO projections are fantasy. Personal and Corporate Income taxes are estimated to DOUBLE between 2010 and 2015. GDP and Social Security Taxes are expected to increase 25%, over that same 6-year period. The economy is 10 Million jobs shy of it's 2008 high watermark. Yet when those 10 Million jobs return, Income Tax revenue is expected to be 50% higher than it was in 2008! Ironically, most new jobs originate in the low-wage service sector: Walmart greeters, burger flippers, and customer service. All the while, high-wage middle-class jobs continually migrate offshore due to accommodating Federal policy. Spending cuts don't exist in the CBO forecast: spending is projected to increase at a rate of ~5%, per year, which is far higher than realistic estimates of GDP growth... yet the deficit is projected to decline! The entire case for deficit reduction requires extremely high growth rates, which is nonsense. Not at those levels. The deficit should remain between 1-2 Trillion for the next 10 years. We hit Greece in about 5 years, if all other factors remain constant. The 4 Trillion in cuts appears to be more smoke and mirrors. Like T Geithner said, it's 4 Trillion in cuts from their projected budget, not CURRENT spending. It would be no different if Obama had said they plan to cut 15 Trillion from the budget over 10 years (if they planned to increase it 1.5 Trillion per year, for the next 10 years). Big fucking deal. That does nothing to reduce the CURRENT deficit and CURRENT spending. Which again, they insist, will come from growth. And it won't happen. Nobody in Government has the political will to make the urgent cuts needed to save America. They want to save their own ass, kick the can down the road, and hope they dodge the bullet. All the while, they dig our grave and reassure us everything is "fine"...
+1 to everything you have said. You know whats funny is that people were warning of this right when Obama took office. I vividly recall the debates back in 2009, and i remember seeing charts of the predicted debt in 2020, here is an example of a chart put out by heritage.org... Back then we were scared that Obama might push us over 14 trillion by 2019, and left wingers were actually saying these numbers were false because they were drawn up by heritage.org..... Now it is a foregone conclusion we will be over 20 trillion in the hole by 2019 You know its funny, because we would now pull our own eye teeth in order to get to the numbers the Obama admin originally forecast by 2019, the same numbers that democrats were complaining were "too biased." I remember reading somewhere that in order for the deficit to remain "Stable" over the next 10 years that the Obama administration is factoring in some ridiculous amount of GDP growth like 8% per year. Check out this chart which comes from 2009 where the lefties were crying that heritage.org exxagerated the numbers by saying that our debt will be 14 trillion by 2019. Now its a foregone conclusion that we will be over 20 trillion by 2020, and we are already over the "exaggerated" projected 2019 14 trillion dollar mark.....
+1 A crisis is coming. US cannot grow itself out of the mess DC has put this country in. Just wait until entitlements are cut or cut off to maintain military spending for all the "humanitarian" wars the US keeps getting involved in.
Again, here is another projection done in 2009 that lefties were crying about at the time, for being "Too biased" Anyone in here want to bet me that the 2014 deficit will not be below 750 billion??? I will give you 5-1 odds. We already know the Obama admin has grossly understated these numbers, may god have mercy on our soul, if the Obama admin actually managed to get something right, we are apparently on a track to systematically increase the deficit from 2014 onward. . At this point we also know we are only dealing with Obamas grossly understated numbers..... we all know that it will actually be far worse when reality comes to fruition.....
I think that chart refers to the percentage of total debt held by the public (as opposed to intra-Government holdings (ie Social Security Trust Fund, Medicare, Old Age Security Trust Fund, Federal Employee Retirement Trust Fund etc). The argument for discluding intra-Government holdings from the total debt picture is those obligations can be monetized. And because they can be "printed-away", we need not consider them (so their logic goes...). Which, to me, is a red herring because the entire spectrum of debt - both held within Government and by the Public - can be monetized. It's still an obligation on the books, with real people and organizations dependent on those revenue streams, identical to private and foreign creditors. The consequences of monetizing ~5 Trillion of intra-Governmental holdings would be disastrous for the dollar, Treasury market and economy, which is why I include them in the total debt picture. Because it's not so simple as a "print-and-forgetaboutit" kinda thing. But you're point is entirely valid and relevant. It seems like the Right pushes this fantasy that Obama took us to the brink, when the crisis gestated under Bush, and was well underway by the time Barack was sworn in. Reckless Fed policy, GSE-underwriting and deregulation saw to that. Obama had to play clean-up, not that I absolve any of them. Just that in my mind, it's not a partisan issue. I think at this point, it's clear we're getting fucked by both sides, equally hard, in the same direction. Arguing over the who dun it is really trivial as it's clear no side intends to deal with the 800 lb gorilla in the room: out-of-control spending, entitlements, war, and the size and scope of Government. The outlandish growth rates needed to keep the deficit stable is a great point and shows just how ridiculous the situation has become. If taxes are held constant (roughly 17% of GDP), GDP must increase to 23 Trillion just to meet current outlays and balance the books (23 x .17 = 3.9 Trillion = ~3.8 Trillion in Current Total Expenditures). And that assumes no additional spending is made. Over 5 years, that works out to something like 10-11% GDP growth, YOY. Obviously, we're past the point of no return. The only way out is to radically shrink Government and the Welfare-Warfare State, or blow apart the currency. And all the dots I'm connecting tell me they have opted for the latter. Which explains Gold, Silver, Oil, industrial metals, agriculture. I see the 2012 Presidential Elections as pivotal. If Ron Paul doesn't get elected (and I know, it's a long shot), America is done. A dollar collapse will happen within 5 years. Conceivably, much sooner, as our Treasury Chiefs and former NeoCon overlords (John Bolton) have openly endorsed a competitor to the US dollar (SDR), dollar-priced commodities, and the US Treasury market (SDR convertible bonds). It looks like US Government policy has embraced a path towards dollar destruction. Again, it sounds sensational. But actions speak louder than words, and that's what all this amounts too. A la Greece.
You are right i totally screwed up when looking for the projected budget deficit.... too much vodka last night....
Yup. I agree. FOX had a retired CIA-officer doing commentary on the debt problem alongside Peter Schiff and some guy from Columbia. The spook said it was "crazy" to even consider cutting the Defense Budget. A budget, with all it's supplementals, is ~1 Trillion dollars. And this is after Robert Gates admitted the biggest threat to National Security is the deficit. Really unbelievable.
haha . well, it's good you brought up the chart, regardless. That canard gets thrown around a lot in media, especially by Government types to rationalize the status quo. As if the debt is only 9 trillion, instead of 14. Makes the situation appear less dire...