GOOG's trading range.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by The Kin, Jul 11, 2005.

  1. Looks like no one has any idea what the stock is truly worth at this point and everyone is just waiting for earnings to be released.
  2. basically. I got hit today. Glad I got out before 10, though.

    wuwuwhat? Did Cramer just say Google, $400 in passing?
  3. Call me crazy but I think GOOG will beat the street by more than 15%. I've been wrong about Google ever since the very beginning but that's because I have always had a negative stance (bias?) on the company. I might actually formulate a long play on my prediction.

    It's just the recent market activity is giving me the spooks. It's up 1% one day then down 1% the next. No one really seems to know what it's worth. $300 is about the fair price built into current estimates.
  4. Im getting deja vu all over again. In the past week:

    One advisor from Prudential says to go 100% into equities.

    Today, a long time bear throws in the towel and says its time to go all into stocks.

    Abby Cohen on tv doing GS's pr spin.

    Chatter on message boards about SP at 1400 soon.

    Even this nutty CME/GOOG parity that was going on for two days. Almost like some sort of joke as the two stocks traded in lockstep for a few days.

    And finally, Cramer is a huge ratings boom for CNBC. Everything he touches turns to gold as every sector is running up parabolically...
  5. The mkts have had a nice rally in the past week or two but GOOG hasn't moved at all.

    The whisper numbers for their earnings are so high, that it doesn't matter how good their earnings or growth numbers come in at because they'll never be high enough to beat the hyped up expectations. It will be like YHOO used to be. YHOO would beat numbers, but unrealistic whisper numbers would cause the stock to plummet despite beating Wall Street's estimates.

    I now, finally feel comfortable shorting it with a stop loss it if it breaks above $300. I think the risk reward is there now.
  6. What's GOOG whisper numbers?
  7. Cramer has buried his pitiful critics. Long live Jimbo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  8. Do you know how to tell if that hot chick at the bar is a keeper ?

    --------- she has G O O G and S H L D written between her knuckles on her two hands! :D
  9. AP
    Google Options Point to Jump in Shares
    Thursday July 14, 5:13 pm ET
    By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
    Reading Trading Tea Leaves Points to Higher Google Stock Price, Shares Climbing

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Google Inc. shares continued to march higher Thursday ahead of next week's earnings report, but investors say the best way to read the financial tea leaves might be in examining trading in the company's options.

    Options, which are financial instruments that are in effect wagers on whether shares will move higher or lower, have long been used to determine investor sentiment about a stock's direction. The phenomenal growth of Google's share price since going public less than a year ago has frequently left stock pickers guessing if it can get any higher -- and recent options trading tells a compelling story.

    The ratio for near-term options as of Thursday showed 344,000 call contracts compared to 238,000 put contracts, according to data provided by Schaffers Investment Research. Just four months ago, there were more puts than calls on the options. Call options show investor appetite to buy the stock, while a put indicates a willingness to sell.

    Google shares have more than tripled since the company completed a splashy initial public offering on the Nasdaq last August, when shares were priced at $85. The stock moved up $2.03 to close at $300.89 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange after trading as high as $306.75 earlier in the day.

    Looking ahead to August contracts, the price options traders believe the stock will surpass during the month is $310.

    "Options traders are expecting good things out of the earnings, because for this option to make money it has to push past the $310 mark," said Nick Perry, an equities analyst with Cincinnati-based Schaffers. "We're going to look at the stock price and the options together, and all signs point to very high expectations for their earnings -- especially since the company has a habit of surprising to the upside."

    The Mountain View, Calif.-based company does not provide Wall Street with guidance, but has trounced analyst projections in each of its three earnings periods since going public. That's led to a huge spike in shares after each report, and that could hold true when it releases second-quarter earnings on July 21.

    After its first earnings report as a public company last October, Google shares surged 14.4 percent to $172.43. The second report's release pushed shares up 7.3 percent to $205.96. The latest earnings release in April saw shares jump 5.7 percent to $215.81 from both extended and regular session moves.

    The stock could have another 15 percent more of growth left this year, according to analysts. Lehman Brothers on Thursday raised its price target on Google to $350 from $275, citing expectations of strong second-quarter earnings. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse First Boston reiterated its "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $350 price target.

    Citigroup Smith Barney has the highest target at $360.

    "While we expect the second quarter to be strong, our high price target and incrementally more positive outlook on the company are based on Google's fundamental earnings power over the long term," said Lehman analyst Douglas Anmuth in a report.

    On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings of $1.20 per share on revenue of $841.2 million.

    One money manager expressed concern that Google's shares could collapse if it misses Wall Street targets.

    "While $350 sounds nice, we're just not comfortable there's enough past history to indicate any predictability or confidence in future earnings," said Tobias Crabtree, a portfolio manager with New York-based Leeb Capital Advisors. The investment firm, which manages about $110 million of assets, doesn't own shares of Google but does have a position in Yahoo Inc.

    "If they aren't able to deliver results in excess of consensus estimates on both earnings and revenue, we anticipate a very sharp pullback in the stock," he said. "We think its well overvalued, but within the sector we do like the overall online names like Yahoo."

    Yahoo Inc., whose shares rose 27 cents to $37 in recent trading on the Nasdaq, will report its earnings on July 19. The near-term options for Yahoo shows 206,000 call contracts compared to 123,000 put contracts -- around the same ratio seen with Google, but about half the volume.


    I heard enough. Bought some calls. hopefully earnings is a blowout.
  10. Smart money writes options.
    #10     Jul 14, 2005