This is gonna go to zero ... I think this small rally won't last too long from 14.20 I am shorting this dude
GOOG doesn't have enough $$$ to pull off that kind of purchase... MSFT could pull it off, but they would be putting their eggs in one basket that wouldn't create any NEW competitive advantage for them...doesn't compute. The best strategy for all three companies is to make sure they buy the next paradigm shift before the next guy does. MSFT could have done this with GOOG a long time ago for a fraction of the money it will cost them to compete now. To a degree, aquisitions should be viewed as insurance to these companies. Google is good, but someone will come up with a better solution eventually.
Google is different than rest of internet search...=RED FLAG. Is this a leftover bubble stock?? Remember yahoo got to split adjusted ( to todays price) of 125.03. If im not mistaken that was the same day it was added to the s and p 500. Time to short is on the inclusion. Sell the panic buy in my opinion. G
Search engines (Google, Yahoo, MSN) comparison "blind test" results: http://www.webmasterbrain.com/seo-tools/seo-experiments/the-search-engine-experiment/test-results/ G 42% Y 31% M 27% Frankly I was a bit suprised. So (assuming the test is objective) G's lead in results isn't as big as perceived. In the search-string I tried (a rather spammy topic), my "most relevant" blind-vote turned out to be Yahoo. Also, eventually MSN is apparently getting better, I remember 2yr ago most Webmasters had its robot-crawler blocked because it was so brain-dead that it consumed tons of bandwidth without any material benefit to the site owner. I still use Google myself for my daily browsing, due to being accustomed to it (having GoogleToolbar installed and all), but for difficult searches i use meta-engines (e.g. dogpile).
How about this question: So Goog is $400+ now and whether or not you think it is overbought, undervalued, or right on....what do you think it will take to send the price down (at least 25%)? A poor earnings report? A new competitor arising? or just a matter of time?
It's the same dynamic as during the .com bubble. Whoever shorted this stock after it's IPO got his eggs burned. Whoever liquidated long positions regretted it and maybe bought back. Buyers witnessed the momentum and stopped selling their long positions, which added to the drying up of the supply side. The stock then accelerated and gained more and more momentum through the shills & mountebanks in the media and the sell side desks. I recenty saw an insider trading report, according to which GOOG was the 5th largest or so seller of it's own stock. My guess is that GOOG will spike before selling kicks in, just like the techs in general back then did. I'd say half of it's current market cap would be justified, if they invented and marketed something like cold fusion reactors or brain programming interface. Here's their "business model" according to yahoo finance: "Google, Inc. provides Web search and online advertising services on the Internet. It offers advertising solutions and global Internet search solutions through its Web site, and Intranet solutions via an enterprise search appliance. The companyâs products and services include Google.com, Google AdWords, Google AdSense, and Google Search Appliance. Its Google AdWords program is used by advertisers to promote their products and services on the Web with targeted advertising. The companyâs Google AdSense program is used by the third party Web sites to deliver ads relevant to the content on their sites. It also provides enterprise search appliances to search corporate systems through the Google Search Appliance. In addition, the company provides email services through Gmail, which offers a gigabyte of free storage for each user along with email search capabilities and relevant advertising. Google was co-founded by Larry Page and Sergey Brin in 1998, and is headquartered in Mountain View, California." CMGI anyone? Doubleclick? Internet Capital Group? No? Oh, I see, most here are registered after 2004
Inclusion in SP500. IMO the powers that be are waiting to unload to the index tracking funds which will have to buy.
At this time, the market says google is worth $416. The market is always right, no matter how irrational the price is.