When the "markets" are up what? 7% in two days and GOOG is flat or down, what do you guys think that might mean?
It seems in this rally the weak names are rallying more than the strong names. I think it means it's a bounce and not a bottom. We'll see.
It means these are "yesterday's" stocks. QCOM was one of the many momo's back in the dot-com era. It never came close to its momo high and began trading more in-line with the fundamentals of the company. The momo era for AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, and all the other shit stock_trader follows is over. These companies are going to have to produce massive earnings to get back to their highs. In other words, stock_trader will be under water on these for a long, long time. He will be reading yesterday's paper for quite a while.
There is a distinction between the stocks of the original tech bubble and google, rimm, and apple. The momentum is not over, but if you're convinced that it is go ahead and short.
Names like GOOG will be the last to be sold in the forced selling, beaten down names will be the 1st to be bought by the value guys. Credit marekts are finally moving in the right direction suggesting that this rally may have some legs to it, look at what Europe did today and UK in particular, how do you stay short in front of $400B to bolster Citi and another $500-700 billion in stimulus coming next year. More important is the commitment that the lastest actions show. Also, despite the gloom and doom I think Thanksgiving sales will be better than expected mainly because of huge discounting, and any positive news will be spun hard.
if you believe 'estimates' for growth, without looking at goog cash on balance sheet per share, it should be valued at around 300-400 a share, discount another 20% of 300, puts you at 240 would be an excellent buy point (about where we're at). I'm not a long term buy & holder, but the market is saying growth rates on it are WAY off considering its a momo stock and I'm not adding any value to it being a 'hot' stock.