GOOG Short to 300

Discussion in 'Trading' started by arealpissedgoy, Jun 22, 2008.

  1. Their two primary revenue sources are showing signs of trouble

    Adsense is a massive fraud. It's more like ad-nonesense. Most of it is click fraud. Google knows this and tolerates it because it brings in revenue.

    More small retailers are canceling adsense for independent niche ad networks with more reliable traffic.

    Google search is beginning to suck. Many of the top results are nothing but infinite click-banks ( same fellows active in click-fraud).

    I don't' use it anymore. I prefer to use Ask.

    I don't use Gmail anymore after they started posting Ads related to my emails. Ie google has been analyzing my private email and who knows what else.

    Yahoo came out with much better email this weekend.

    Google finance is a no go. basically except for copying yahoo, I don't use it. I prefer yahoo finance.

    I'm not sure how they plan to monetize their new office tools. Not many businesses will use these tools because of valid privacy concerns.

    So where is the new revenue going to come from to sustain it's high PE?

    Short GOOG to low/mid 300 where it may get some of the "value" buying triggering short covering.

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  2. No they're not.

    Your trade is wishful thinking rather than a substantial evaluation of a change in trend.

    Not saying google is going to $1000 right now, but your argument doesn't have a leg to stand on.
  3. Got any facts or even an example to support any of the above assertions? is still in business? I certainly haven't heard anyone say they were the best search engine. What's a type of query where they are substantially better? btw, Ask isn't competent enough to do their own ads and outsources them to Google. Given that, I'm not sure I buy your argument that they've got better results.

    Your mail assertion is hilarious. Yahoo tags an ad onto the end of every mail you send (ghetto). Their spam detection is miserable compared to gmail's which is close to perfect. Unfortunately, it would take way too long to update all of my addresses. If I could press a button and turn my yahoo account into a gmail account and set up a forward, I'd do it in a second. That's why yahoo doesn't offer the feature.

    The bull case is that yahoo has given up on search, msft can't compete and goog will soon have 80% of a market which is still growing 20-25% (and no viable competitors)
  4. affan


    I don't think GOOG will hit $300 unless the entire market crashes!
  5. ammo


    google is a short to 540 and if it breaks there is a nice gap fill below it,300 is a stretch,it's one of those calls that you are not putting any money on,so why make it. there are other things to trade rather than sit on your hands with your money tied up in google.
  6. We get it. so you like google.

    goog might be king in search, but where does their revenue come from?

    it comes from ad placements. And the fact is advertisers aren't getting any return because of massive adsense fraud where most clicks are web bots merrily clicking away.

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    goog price is directly correlated to its adsense product.

    So as advertisers flee because they're not getting any ROI on their google ads, the question remains.

    Where is goog revenue growth going to come from to sustain its high PE.

    The current price reflects investor expectations of continued blow out earnings.

    ain't going to happen.

  7. I think goog makes a lot more placing ads next to the search results than it does placing random crap on websites. If the money was in placing random crap on websites, MSFT wouldn't have been paying up for YHOO to have some chance of getting into the search game.

    Think about this: How much money do you spend on technical analysis software while surfing elitetrader? Probably 0. How likely is it that you're about to spend money on technical analysis software if you just typed it into a search engine? Stil, pretty low, but a hell of a lot bigger than 0. Google's a one trick pony, but it's a helluva trick.

    If advertisers are fleeing the price of keywords would be dropping and people would be directing their ad budgets away from search/google. I haven't heard anything along these lines, but that doesn't mean it's not happening. How about a link backing up your view of the world? google only gives pages saying search advertising is ok, but they're probably biased. Perhaps that newfangled will give you some links to post.

    I'm long GOOG, but don't really have a problem with people bashing it as long as they make coherent, fact supported arguments. The guy who said it's got no support if it gets below 540 is very likely correct - though he's also probably correct that 300 is a pipe dream.
  8. don't forget the myriad of in-development projects that we still don't know about. And what happens if they start pulling revenue out of youtube? What happens when they release the Gphone?
  9. jagmot


    I work for a merchant who used Google and Yahoo pay per click. We stopped using pay per click due to massive click fraud.

    The companies are aware however it is impossible to completely stop. The other problem is just like you get telemarkerters calls at home...lots of business search google and then try to sell your company business services. You bet they are clicking on your paid ads meant to generate business for your company...not theirs.

    Solution: Flat rate click ads. This is not speculation, this is a fact. The merchant I work for has bought some phrases for a flat fee in the past two months. We are very happy with the flat fee arrangement. We haven't tried this out on Yahoo yet.

    Remember when AOL went from minutes based service to unlimited? Expect some brisk business and a huge driver in Google's growth over the next few years.

    Oh and there is no contract, month to month.
  10. Coin flip, heads GOOG crashes, tails GOOG files for Chapter 11, also they have made it to the covers of Fortune, Businessweek, Time, Newsweek,The Economist thats the greatest jinx as it often indicates peak activity IMHO from PR people. Does not look as dangerous as RIMM on chart...

    P.S. Chuck Norris is short GOOG
    #10     Jun 22, 2008