That chart looks like a 3 year old attacked it with a blue crayon. http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1491592 Almost everyone on this thread sees something different in the GOOG chart. Guys are drawing trendlines everywhere, guys are seeing imaginary formations, etc. That's why 95% of the time TA is worthless.
you have to admit how well it performed from a fill the gap / double top perspective. these stocks move when the big guys are ready to make them move. The way I bled to death for months on long calls... and then the entire move in 2 weeks after 5 months of shit. just too hard to believe there weren't some serious 470 straddle sellers out there. furthermore, I think this move coincided perfectly with the ending of the sale of a few (15) million shares for employee option hedging (TSO program - google it up). Imagine these huge multi billion $$ players - if they know the schedule of forced selling for hedging, they can short the straddles, short the stock to keep *interest* down, etc... The momentum money stays out if its acting too bearish for a reason. Thus is actually probably cheaper to manipulate a stock that isn't blowing off yet than meets the eye. Of course, you have to have deep pockets. Then when its all done (last options expiration), time to remove their short stock hedge and flip to long. I'm sure it can all be done with a few million shares, and $20/straddle for 2 months can pay for losses on equivilent shares for up to $490-$500. we'll never know. could have been a Morgan Stanley operation start to finish. sure their traders sold a shitload of straddles. how's that for a bullshit conspiracy theory. just too suspicious.
Listen everyone! Forget all that cup and saucer nonsense. Forget all that beans and franks moving average horseshit. Throw all your charts and cup, handle and saucers in the trash and BUY, BUY, BUY GOOG! *THEY* have decided to make GOOG move to the upside. There is so much damn money out there and now some is going AND WILL BE GOING into GOOG. Buy or be left behind but the GREEN LIGHT has been given to GOOG!!!!!!!!!! Woof Woof!!!
If you guys took the time to learn some basic math, then you would understand how this operates. Lets take last summer. Take the last two peaks and the two bottoms. (450.72+427.89)/2= 439.305 (360.57+363.36)/2= 361.965 439.305-361.965= 77.34 77.34+439.305= about 516 which was the target price on the breakout in theory. the actual price was 513. I would multiply 516 by .97 and that would get me to 500. If I were trading it back last year, I would have longed it on the breakout and then sold it at 500 without looking back. So in trading Google on last breakout in October, you would have known to long Google after the breakout with simple math and then when to cash out. I provided you with a trading map. One person stated it looks like a little kid scribbled it with Crayon. Well, if you want to think this way you can, but this is how the pros look at stuff on Wall Street. They take every trend line into consideration to find the pockets. Complex software programs are used to create a model. Your looking at this from the perspective of a guy that is at home on his PC using Interactive Brokers. You have to look at this how the computers are trading it. Im telling you how the computers are trading it and how the quants are looking at it. Now I will reiterate how I would trade this the way forward. I would not long this stock until it gets at least 3% above 513 which would be 528, rounded up would be 530. I always round up as a risk management precaution. 530 would be the point where I would be confident that it cleared the major resistance lines as well. 513-437= 76 76+513= 589 589 X .97= 571 would be the place were I would put a hard limit sell order. There are reasons behind why I have hard targets and use these types of calculations. Thats because I know everyone else uses them too except for Joe six-pack trader. I multiply the target by .97 because I want to cash out before it hits its mark for obvious reasons. If there is one thing we can all agree on, we can agree on the following things about Google: 1) It sucks to be caught on the other side of the trade as Scrinabop can atest to. It sucks to wait 6 months to be in the green again. 2) Google does not go up forever and is subject to pullbacks like all stocks. A good trading plan and risk management strategy combined with targets and hard sell orders greatly reduces #1 so we can all rest easier at night.
Google controlls the internet...buy and hold for the long run. I can see this stock being in the XX,XXX or X,XXX
To say that you can forsee what a stock can do simply based on TA is rediculous. Traders make decisions based on reactions... they don't try to predict the future. Also, what in the world makes you believe quants draw trend lines all over charts? These are people with phds in concrete sciences... why the hell would they be marking up charts with trendlines? Give me a break... I'm not saying you can't trade off of trend lines, but when you have a million lines on one chart that will just lead to bad decisions.