GOOG Ready to Retrace ?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by tradertony76, Aug 9, 2005.

  1. OK, first things first:

    1) I know bupkis about fundamental analysis.

    2) I tend not to make calls on individual stocks

    That aside, I was going through charts today, and came upon a recent GOOG chart. Between

    A) The short term trend break

    B) The failed recent attempt to make a good, new high

    C) The anemic bounce after the failed attempt

    I'm pretty sure this one is due to drop. Based on the last retracement and the long term trend, I'm calling a 20% drop from the recent high or ~$250.

    If I wasnt broke, I'd probably actually take a short position on this one !

    Anyone else bearish in the short term on this one ?

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  2. zxcv1fu


    Nice chart!

    Last week I bought cheap OTM sept & dec puts waiting for the drop.

    Several months ago I made out well with put spreads for the news play.
  3. zxcv1fu


  4. The Sept. 260 puts look tasty!
    Little downside risk and if the stock keeps falling....
  5. I agree GOOG is bearish right now (@ 290.40 3:20pm------> I went short the stock on 7/22 @ 305 near the close as bearish reversal on above avg vol took place (NOTE I play options a lot but GOOG's are very expensive).

    Just put in new stop alert (my computer rings a bell) if GOOG pierces 292.95 (I'll put up my Level II & check trading to get best price to cover but not to exceed 293.75)

    A) GOOG opened strong today but on low volume relative to normal 1st 15 minutes with high of 292.68
    B) GOOG's 50dsma = 292.57
    C) 293.75 is approx interim day peak from where GOOG fell yesterday

    #1 = MINIMUM TRADE TARGET WAS 289 -289.50 (Broke this today but rallied strongly off 288.50 (I'll be watching the last 15 minutes of trading & probably take 1/2 position off the table if > 291

    #2 = My expectation is for drop near term to 277 with excellent chance to make it to 261.50 & good chance of going to 251.
  6. zxcv1fu


    Never know which way GOOG will gap in the morning. I can only sleep tight to swing trade GOOG options.

    Well, I did't pull the trigger on GOOG cover of my short near the close because the institutions were selling into the last 1/2 hr rally.

    I'll be looking for GOOG to pierce 288.50 tommorrow but if it finds good support there again I'll cover the 1/2 position.

    For you put option guys --> A ?

    How are you calculating your risk/reward on this or you just throwing in a "HOME RUN" speculation?

    I generally like to take small risks with high probability of profit.
    I use options generally to hedge ; e.g. diagonal spread.
  8. I've traded GOOG on the upside 3x via stock & option purchase as follows
    1st - 4/20 @ 198 & hedged with OTM call with the stock @ 230 on 5/11 (lost some of possible profit but it was my first GOOG trade & I needed to protect a nice profit)

    2nd - on 5/18 bought in the hedge with the stock @ 234 & went long 20 June 220c

    3rd - put on a bull straddle (already long 20 June 220's) shorted 20 June 290c

    Exited all above 7/22 & went short.

    I'm very nervous trading the short side for the first time which keeps me @ my computer 7 hours a day. If BIDU can run to 150 in 1 1/2 days what could GOOG run to?
  9. zxcv1fu


    The options of GOOG are expensive. Suppose to be good to use spread. I used put spd last time when it was going to have lots share un-locked. This time is just looking for lotto play at the chart with cheap longer term puts. With limit risk & lots of possible reward if GOOG moves fast in my way. If it moves against me the risk is limited. Options are great tools.
  10. I agree opyions are great tools but you"ve got to know your technicals & Greeks to play consistently- with a profit.

    For GOOG:
    Do you know what the Theta (Change in the price of an option with respect to a change in its time to expiration is? i.e. Time Value.

    Do you know what the Vega is? (Change in the price of an option with respect to its change in volatility)

    Do you know what the Delta is? (Change in the price of an option relative to the change of the underlying security)

    Do you know what the Gamma is? (Change in the delta of an option with respect to the change in price of its underlying security)

    #10     Aug 10, 2005