GOOG object lesson

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stock777, Feb 17, 2006.

  1. I know this is after the fact here, and I hate that but it might be instructive.

    I posted Wed, on a live chat, partially in jest , but only partially, that with every clown saying GOOG has been so weak into the rally for two days that it must be on deaths doorstep, that in fact it would probably rally large (after shaking out all the weak hands and inviting in a few new shorts for tea)

    Well, lo and behold.
  2. I rarely buy options, preferring instead to sell them, but I bot Feb 380 calls for 35 cents Tuesday afternoon.

    My thesis? GOOG was due for a sharp, year 2000-like bounce to 400, esp after the negative press over the weekend. People who read and follow Barrons and other mags think they're smart money. But they're not--they're bagholders, and weak hands, and in a rally, they'd drive the price up fast.

    I still think the odds are against the 380s being in the money, but I considered the potential reward much, much greater than the risk.

    I guess we'll see.:)
  3. 2 bad. Prob go to 400 Monday for spite
  4. ginux


    make that 420
  5. ===============
    stock 777;

    Lots of good measures lag ;
    or after the fact as you say.

    Nice move up, nice volume up,GOOG on 2-16;
    still looks weak,QQQQ doesnt look so strong either.

    Looks like the shorts have better tea, than ;
    a rally large. Not a prediction