http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={E9B9CEA8-EA47-48C6-A91F-69F53F018AE2} Wow - online advertising proving to be very expensive and somewhat ineffective. Could this be March 2000 deja vu all over again ?
I think the greater part about Goog's true valuation lies in its P/E. Is the growth story still there? I mean they already have the largest stake in the search market. My belief is that it will become the next Microsoft where it will have a P/E in the 20s and require a dividend to further shore up the price. Its an excellent company, the question now isnt so much the share price but the p/e...
if that earnings number stops growing significantly and forward PE heads to the 20 range, that price target will quickly go to: 250.
In the long run, I see it at 315. However, I believe it will trade in a range until the next conference call as defined by the chart. Dont have a chart in front of me, so I cant give exact prices. Between 450-500? It all depends on what Dr. Brett calls the eeeewwww! factor. There will be a time in the market when investors no longer see Google as cool or inspiring. When that time comes, then we will see multiple compression. When that time comes, I dont know, but the Google story is a few years old and my bet people are starting to tire of it. Microsoft was cool in the late 90s and then it slipped into this eeewww! phase where everyone hated it because their computers were crashing and the viruses. Apple slipped into the eeeewww! phase for a while until it became cool again.
That's where you guys are wrong. You are assuming google will stop at a search engine company! In this new area of internet video plus everything else at Google's disposal not to mention an obscene amount of cash that goes in regularly into the company's pockets , I would not underestimate this gorilla. High PE, please. You want to talk high PE ? Talk AKAM, talk BIDU. Watch it hit 550 sometime in 2007.
Microsoft was cool in the late 90s and then it slipped into this eeewww! phase where everyone hated it because their computers were crashing and the viruses. I thought everyone hated Microsoft in the 90s (Win 95 bluescreen), but respected Windows 2000 and up.
You may be right. But, Try jumping in front of a train and see what the results are! Reality is reality and numbers are numbers. Until...
When have you gone online and seen a AD and said to your self "Hmm must have it". Never. Because everyone skips the AD or doesn't pay attention to it.
True dat - it pays to be a contrarian. Kind of funny. I recall the end of 2005 as we were approaching 2006, a whole bunch of wall street analysts and CNBC guest experts were saying GOOG would be trading in the $250 range right about now. So there you go. Before the Nasdaq tanked today, I thought GOOG was really gonna make a run at $480. It was one of the strongest moves I can recall in quite some time. I have asked this before, but I wonder if they will really stick with the NO SPLIT policy