Discussion in 'Stocks' started by a529612, Jan 29, 2007.
It rode all the way down to $320 or so before the rebound.
It happened before that GOOG moved very little immediately after earnings announcement (10pts swing). You'll get hurt with that long straddle.
Playing Goog before earnings is like playing Russian Roulette. If it goes the wrong way, or hedges don't like their forecast, your going to be hurting. Its like RACK a couple of weeks ago. However, if it does go bad, the dip may be a buying opportunity. Was with both RACK and RIMM. Here's hoping for that opportunity.
Google has to move $40+ for you to make money on that straddle.
Buy the stock before earning- too much risk. Short the stock before earning- too much risk.
I think the only way to play GOOG before earning is to buy a call/put- limited risk- decent reward if you are right.
It's not that Google's going to expose some dramatic shift in its profits or sales. Rather, it's because for the last few days, several analysts' expectations have been spiraling up and over Wall Street consensus about what Google's to report.
Expectations were already high, with the average forecast calling for a profit of $2.90 a share on revenue of $2.19 billion. But some of the new, higher expectations have shifted what would normally be a "blowout" quarter to one where Google simply matches, or slightly surpasses expectations, said Troy Mastin, a William Blair & Co.
"While we believe Google is poised to have another strong quarter, Street expectations have increased and the likelihood of another blowout quarter is fairly slim, in our view," Mastin wrote in a report for clients.
Sounds like a good time to buy some puts after the run- up in the morning.
There's a perfect double-top at 513. If it breaks this tomorrow and stays, I'd guess GOOG will continue to rally. If we get a sell off, there would probably be support at 450-ish...either way, buying after earnings might not be a bad idea, in moderation...
goog to 538-542 AH
nasdaq 2490 tomorrow
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