Congrats! You deserve it. Do you plan to start a permanent thread dedicated to trades like the one you posted here? I just became aware of your thread now, but if I knew about it I would have definitely followed it.
So if in the next trade, he lost his premium, will you still stick around, and not bash him as a gambler?
Board is so riddled with losers, most can't stand watching someone else succeed. Great TIMELY call OP!
Peter Brandt called a head and shoulders top in GOOG the day it bottomed and then soared into earnings. http://peterlbrandt.com/head-shoulders-rest-google-forming-textbook-top/
It is his money and I do not bash people whether they win or lose. I think that the trade he made was good not because he won it, but because I think that the option he bought was really cheap (again not because he won, but because I think it was cheaper premium than what it could be/should be). I do not think highly of black scholes model. As for gambling, the options market seems to me to be a negative sum game. If this is correct, the participants as a whole are losing money.
The NFLX earnings has demonstrated the very important point of locking in profits when you can. Do not get too greedy because the market can take unrealized profits back. Before earnings at market close - 4:00 PM EST GOOG $888 NFLX $355 After earnings at market open - 9:30 AM EST GOOG $980 plus 10.4% NFLX $388 plus 9.3% GOOG 1 day chart after earnings Green dot - Closed position @ $50.40 NFLX 1 day chart after earnings
I must be a heretic in not believing the "truth" of markets because "the" market seems to have correctly predicted NFLX earnings share price movement (355 close with 45 point Oct. 25 straddle so selling the earning straddle made money) but was totally wrong on the GOOG straddle share price movement prediction - at something like a 32 point straddle move on an 880 close. Psychology must somehow be involved. Seemingly GOOG unlimited share price upside is justified because advertising has unlimited upside potential and unlimited ability to increase market share followed by infinite profit growth turning the world into nothing but advertising (making Huxley and his Brave New World book's doomsday prediction appear as a mere amateur) while just starting US Shale O&G energy development are viewed as having limited potential and as "chasing the red queen" as today's short attacks on various mid cap E&P showed: HK, MHR, GPOR etc. Also for NFLX, seemingly human entertainment distribution companies are hindrances toward achieving a pure reality as advertising world. Long live the keepers of the "page" algorithm.