GOOG - Earnings this Thursday - Buy OTM weekly calls on Thursday

Discussion in 'Options' started by FXforex, Oct 15, 2013.

  1. FXforex


    Thread title says it all. Exact strike TBA.
  2. Georgi90


    I saw the thread on the home page and I knew it was you ...
    Will you post a snapshot of your tradeplatform where you traded this...
  3. FXforex


    Sure ...... On Thursday when (if) I enter the trade. :)
  4. FXforex


    Just a quick update.

    I made a typo when I stated "weekly" options, the options are actually the regular options expiring October 19. The price range will be about $3.00, so that might be about 5 strikes OTM. Will know on Thursday.

  5. FXforex


    Update: I am considering the GOOG 10-19-13 930 calls at about $3.00, current price $4.50. :)
    Next Update: Thursday at about 3:30 PM EST.
  6. Bearish on GOOG for this report.
  7. vanv0029


    Buying calls into earnings seems not to work because the ATM Straddles
    going into earnings are almost always over priced compared to actual
    price movement after earings going into earnings.

    I think IBM's earning today is an exception, but buy calls would not have worked.

    There are some back tested statistics from a Tasty Trade "Market Measures"
    session showing that ATM straddles going into earnings have been mostly
    over price going back a few years.
  8. Write them then :)
  9. gulatin2


    If you look at Implied vol across different tenors, vol is priced in the cheapest for GOOG heading into earnings tonight. ATM straddle is pricing 3.6% move as opposed to 5.7% average move , this stock has experienced over the last 14 qtrs.

    Now the question to ask is - Is the vol priced low for a reason or its again a mis pricing . Average of downside move -5.5% and avg for upside moves is 7.15%

    As they say in the world of options trading- option are meant to be sold and not to sell.. This time it definitely reflects that premium sale is more risky as GOOG reports earnings tonight
  10. mm move is predicting 31 pts...hate to say it but a 84% probability of losing + commission costs...why make these really stupid (no offense meant) calls?

    As already mentioned buying calls just before earnings is one of the most consistent losing strats there are. and I do agree with the above comment I would not be a seller into this either.
    #10     Oct 17, 2013