I still think its all a lie Short the lie as it becomes realized Buy what a syndicate gets involved in... There's only value in growing misperceptions
GOOG earnings are not until Thursday after the market closes. I will also post the strikes for the butterfly sometime on Thursday, around 3:30pm EST.
thats a big pre earnings run up 570 to 600 .. you know i think i'm just going to buy an out of the money call option.. for an upside blow out.. best risk reward.. but what about this.. Buy 3 contracts of GOOG 2012 JUL 685.00 CALL @ $0.25 $75.00 Sell 1 contract of GOOG 2012 AUG 685.00 CALL @ $0.75 ($75.00) or Sell 1 contract of GOOG 2012 AUG 650.00 CALL @ $3.60 ($360.00) Buy 3 contracts of GOOG 2012 JUL 650.00 CALL @ $1.15 $345.00 theres going to be such a vol implosion even on the Aug that if it doesn't go up that much or misses the whole spread will be worth practically nothing..
I bought straddles this morning. I think that we might see an outsized move given their exposure to foreign markets and the lack of visibility into those markets. And now with this departure, there might be a larger catalyst for vol. 5.8%ish... Hoping to make 1-2% notional.
well that puts it in the early 630's i'm modeling my ratio calender in excel as we speak if i can freaking get this to work! i wanna properly adjust the vol in the back month and measure the profit graph if there isn't a good blow out to the upside..
Yeah. 633 I think is my breakeven. I think your spread is toxic. YOu will lose money if it's < 630 because your long calls have a high hurdle and your Aug calls will definately be worth something (probably more). If the move is massive to the upside you'll do really well. Otherwise hope for a down 5%.
interesting play, maximum loss 120, gain 1000. like this strategy, but it needs lots of margin. if moves like MLNX, that will be good. EDU/VVUS/WHX are good moves, did not ride edu, rode whx with 12.5 put OTM, very profitable. today rode some 26 vvus put otm, very good too. whx is an exception, I saw 10under, ride to 9.3, that is my target, out there. still kept some vvus 26put, i think tommroww maybe vvus will be 20 under. earning play is hard. you can use QQQ to play goog, will be better.
OK .... This is my final butterfly position. 580/595/610 Butterfly $1.70 GOOG @ 595.82 Buy 1 GOOG Jul 2012 580.00 call @ $24.90 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG120721C00580000 Sell 2 GOOG Jul 2012 595.00 calls @ $16.20 x 2 = $32.40 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG120721C00595000 Buy 1 GOOG Jul 2012 610.00 call @ $9.20 http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG120721C00610000 Total Debit $1.70. Maximum loss $170.00, maximum gain $1330.00 if GOOG closes at $595 on Friday.
YEAH.. i'm with you.. i was trying to see with a down vol senerio but not much of a move what my liability would be on the short strike of the call ratio i was talking about.. i'm just finally getting this hoadley thing working..