GOOG bubble

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by The Kin, Nov 17, 2005.

  1. It's painfully obvious that GOOG is in a bubble however it would be suicide to short as a positive earnings suprise will send GOOG into the stratosphere. Likewise, one negative earnings suprise will return it back to rock bottom.

    What's a swing trader to do? I don't think anyone could dare call a top @ $400 since this sham could easily goto $500 before all is said and done.
  2. nassau


    I agree it is hard to short,
    I am looking at witting calls in the Dec 440 range, pays good money and that allows google to run another 40dollars the next 30days. You can receive 6-10k depending on how you scale.
    You can also break up the scale in so your average cost is 440 range and get a larger premium.
    If I am wrong I would write a second position higher again and if wrong again, would exit but the pain is less as I have received a good premium and google would have to hit 470 area to cause me any pain next 30-45days...

    also talk about defying gravity..did you catch the MRVL move..
    ran 5dollars by beating the anaylsis by 3cents...
    I short MRVL as a day trade with options for security
    This stock has a large fund share control and is also very dangerous to short.

  3. gimp570


    Bubble..Yeah you see how much money they are making per share?? If BIDU is at 400 in a year everyone will be saying the same thing. BUBBLE...Why don't you just buy them and enjoy the ride??

    Seems like much easier money than looking to short them...

  4. well i'd disagree to buy. at $129 billion cap i'd say the odds are great its 10% lower in jan. to say jsut enjoy the ride is not prudent investing but speculative guy into the frenzy mode. at this cap theres a good chance goog is lower 10 years from now.THE ONLY WAY TO SHORT THIS IS NAKE CALLS. YOU'RE USING HUGE CALL PREMIUM TO YOUR ADVANTAGE AND YOU CAN BE WRONG BY 50 PTS AND STILL WIN. I'M MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH THE JAM 440'S TO SUCK HUGE PREMIUM
  5. looking at quick short-term fundamentals....

    google's revenue's are growing at a slightly faster pace than costs. and with no major liabilities, I'd say the only thing short of some crazy lawsuit against goog would be that the price freezes for a while (maybe a couple months) around 390-420..and thats at worst.
  6. When the bull market ends, which will probably be soon, GOOG will take a big haircut, at least 1/3 off from its top price.

    There will be a rush for the exits.
  7. rchopi


    I like the idea of writing 440 calls to get premium. Can someone explain how to play this with example with pros and cons. thanks in advance
  8. gotta love how the M.M's or other powers that be pinned GOOG to $400 strike late in the day

  9. keyser1


    example -- sell jan 440 call for 10.30. Goog hits 500 by january. you lose a shitload of money
  10. hopefully that poster has heard of "covered calls "

    #10     Nov 19, 2005