Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by Ivanovich, Apr 26, 2010.
Martinghoul, I'd be interested in what you think. Is Portugal the next PIIG to fly?
Interesting article on Greece (and Potugal): For Greeceâs Economy, Geography Was Destiny
Portugal and Spain have been flying already, Ivan... Problem with Portugal is it's not clear how like Greece it is. There's not much research/info on it, so for all we know it might be tarred with the same brush for no good reason. Or it could be a dog. Hard to tell...
My money's on Spain as the proper Amelia Earhart of the bunch... However, that's just me.
while u on this topic, someone posted some data showing several countries all /w trillion dollar debt, so does anyone know who the creditors are if nearly every country is in debt?
Let me ask a noobish question, if I may.
If I'm a speculator of CDS or sovereign bonds, etc., and I know - without a shadow of a doubt - that it is essentially risk-free money (ie, the EMU will bail out anyone in trouble), isn't it in my interest to drive up spreads/rates to the highest possible point, regardless of what is actually possible for the sovereign to pay?
AEP wrote an article on Portugal not so long ago.
Well, yes, in theory, but it's a mkt. It's not, contrary to what the Greeks might say, a schoolyard, where there are these bullies that push other people around. In my view, what's happening here is not speculators driving yields a particular way. This is about real-money, bank repo desks, etc panicking properly.
This is relatively well-known for individual countries. Normally debt offices for the respective sovereigns provide this data. Also, BIS compiles this data in its regular releases on cross-border capital flows.
What are your thoughts on this one, MG?
Looks a little Greek, doesn't it?
In general, I agree with Macro Man, who put it very nicely indeed:
"...it nevertheless offers a strong suggestion that after more than two years of being on the receiving end of public largesse, the financial sector (and banks in particular) may now face pressure to become net contributors."
Goldies is a bit of a special case, for sure, so they might be the fortunate organization chosen to make the ultimate contribution. Sorry to wax poetic, but I am reminded of the line from Blade Runner:
" - The light that burns twice as bright burns for half as long - and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy (Goldie)..."
Well, if the Dodd bill goes the way the media whores are totting it, then we'll see spin off of all trading desks. That would be interesting. Of course, in this market, that's bullish.