I'm putting this project on hold. I do plan to return with a new format. The new format will be exposure in a MyFXBook page. The MyFXBook page will be connected to an MT5 account which will be connected to a "The5%ers" HighStakes evaluation account, which will turn into a $5k funded account after passing two tests totaling about 13%, without going below 10% in either test. Exposure to a MyFXBook page, most would agree, is a higher degree of proof that any particular system is legit...if it is legit...more than an Excel spreadsheet, even if it has timestamps. This will also, over time, pay me to present the performance of this method for public education. That is, i will be paid with a funded account. It will be a small, 5k account to begin. It just so happens that the cost of the account, $39 is exactly the value of a gift of cash i was given for Christmas, $33, plus a $7 gift from The5%ers funding firm. I thought this would be a great way to leverage that gift. We will see the value of the gift by next Christmas. Another reason for the pause, and the change, is a mistake i made in calling out my stops ahead of time, or rather, not calling out a stop. I made this mistake a couple times before during this project, took the hit, and kept going. But this time the difference it makes to the account is too significant to ignore, and it feels like the demonstration is now flawed, and won't reflect how this system really performs. The last stop was called for 4857 to go long from a short position at 4947. As happened last time, this call was made just before going to bed, which means i don't watch the market for at least 8 hours. And with such a tight stop, i had occasionionally called stops two steps ahead, in case the market swings while i'm asleep. It did swing, hit the stop to go long, and by the time i could see the market again, had come all the way back down to 4937. That was lower than what i would have set the next stop at and against what should have been done, take the hit, and go short again at that price, i waited for a retracement to where i would have put my stop back at 4947. And i waited...And because i've been burning the candle at both ends, i even went back to sleep to awaken with price down around 4870. The really disappointing thing is the long stop was only taken out by a quarter of a point, at 4957.25. (I've been using round numbers). So rather than explain this, and continue on with an Excel sheet, i think this would be a good time to upgrade the overall presentation. I'm pausing briefly to run some tests on whether looking at the SP500 three times a day is optimal...or whether a 24 hour, always-in cycle is optimal. I will probably no longer want to have a position on during the night, nor over the weekend. I may also not find the SP500 optimal for the method i'm using. For example, maybe Bitcoin is better. The 5%ers funding firm does offer both. I'll be back soon with a chart of actual results of my calls, compared to what perfect execution of this method on the time frame i was using should have yielded.
Here's a comparison between theoretical (brown line) and the calls i made here in this project (blue line): Theoretical had been outperforming for a while, so it's not surprising there came a dip. But it looks like I had been making some mistakes that brought the dip a little lower for a difference of about 4%. Considering this method was only expected to make about 3.4% a month, that is significant.