I have a bunch of US money that I need to exchange, and I was wondering what everyone's opinion is on where the US dollar is headed over the next couple of months? (The exchange rate is decent today and so I was thinking of getting a forward rate for the next couple of months.) TIA
The dollar has been rallying on a flight to quality into treasuries and tbills. Longer term I think it goes down if the us prints the 700 billion dollars as it must be inflationary.
I would hold off for a few months on exchanging it. I think USD/CAD will head to 1.10 pretty soon...unless of course that 700 billion thing passes.
Given their dependence on US economy and on commodities, I would not choose Canadian as a flight to safety. Shorting the US dollar futures (DX is symbol) is the easiest... Or convert some to Swiss francs maybe...
Short term the dollar rallies. In times of crisis its still considered the safe haven. Long run, the fed will have assumed trillions of new obligations and the world will slowly start to drop the dollar as the reserve currency of choice. Avoid the euro/pound as europe's economy isn't in much better shape. CAD will hold up better, but its only a partial hedge given it's link to the US. Best alternatives are the yen/swiss franc/gold.