Oh, man... are you kidding me? Poker is tic-tac-toe, while trading is Civilization 3/ Dungeons & Dragons/ (Insert any other game which is intricately complex, with a universe of infinite possibilities and widely diverse scenarios.) Poker and trading- I've risen to the top 1% in both games, yet I'm <b>done</b> with the boring grind of the poker tables, as I focus exclusively on my trading...
some people are probably attracted to both due to an aversion to manual labor. same thing that makes people stroll the beach with metal detectors. *** Making decisions under uncertainty, reading the other participants, mathematical applications, and, oh, yes, money. A fascinating study of human nature (one's own as well as others').
That reminds me of when Michael Jordan tried to play pro baseball. Daniel Negreanu loves the cameras, the glamour, the stardom, etc. I make about as much money as he does, but is Pepsi co. knocking on my door with lavish endorsement deals? Hardly. (I wish.) Making low seven-figures in poker comes with better fringe benefits for those lucky few who can do it, than does making low eight-figures from trading. Does that make sense?
Actually determinig the probability of your trades is quite simple. Just make up a set of rules that give you a trade, such as support resistance... trade it with discipline for a year. Now just divide your total winning trades between your lossing trades, and you have yourself a ratio.
Why do most top traders have a solid history in poker playing? They don't. You are confusing some ET poker breast-beating with reality.
Hey RM Interesting - for me it's just the opposite, since I simply take the output of my analysis algorithms and enter positions with predetermined stops, then add or subtract as needed. It's way more mechanical than poker for me... but again I am talking about live poker, not internet. I guess guys who are constantly analyzing the global markets, trying to identify correlations and inefficiencies and to predict the effect of geopolitical events might see trading as a grand game; in fact in that case I could see someone thinking that trading is the most challenging pursuit of all. I guess I just don't trade that way. And I see Cheese is still here - every post completely lacking in content or relevance.
To become a better poker player: I would stongly recommend playing some omaha hi-lo. It has turned into my favorite game, but in the meantime, it made me a MUCH better holdem player. It teaches you patience, aggressiveness, and gave me a better feel on reading people. Here in LA players in this game are VERY aggressive..
Trading is not meant to be FUN... Neither is playing poker, if you are serious about it... Trading should be boring...
The one thing that I hate about poker is that you can only semi-stop your losses (it falls somewhere between blackjack and trading). You can stop betting, but once you bet, your in for your amount - no more no less. I also don't like not being able to pyramid. Imagine the poor SOB who gets a Royal Flush and bets only medium-size so as not to chase everyone out...