Good poker player = good trader?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by a529612, Jun 9, 2006.

  1. We can interchange a number of hands for the AA and you would play it the same way. Some of these would be KK, AQ, KQ, QJ, etc. You would be playing the hand like what we mentioned above as a Big Pair.



    What if we had 44 in the above example, that would now give us a set. The poor guy with the AA wouldn't know what hit him, same thing if we had our QJ, or JJ. These would be considered Milking Hands and you would do your best to extract the most best as possible. We already mentioned the drawing hands.



    Now let's go over a list of hands. These hands are not from any book and they aren't supposed to be exact rankings of what is best. These are geared to low limit loose games and the point is to help you understand how you would play each and what you are hoping for, and what can beat you.



    * AKs means AK of the same suite.









    AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK, JJ

    - These are premium hands and no matter what game you'll play you'll be happy to look down and see them. These fall into the category of Big Pairs and you'll raise and reraise with them preflop. AA doesn't have to worry about over cards hitting but when you have KK, QQ, and JJ you will often find yourself with an A on the board and you'll have to decide whether to continue. If lots of people are in, usually someone has the A. When you have AKs or AK, you'll raise and try to catch an A or K, or other draw on the board.



    AQs, AQ, AJs, KQs, KJs, JTs

    - These are also quality hands. And even if someone raises before you'll, you will most likely play. A late position raise with these hands isn't a bad move. Whenever you are suited, you have a much better chance of winning, especially in low limit games where big hands win since so many people are in. Raising a hand like KQs if you are on the button and everyone is in is a great move since you have a good drawing hand (straights, flushes, big cards like a Q or K, etc). These hands pretty much play themselves but be careful for the occasional person who is tight and is only raising with AA or KK. You wouldn't want to bring AQ against one of those hands. This kind of read will be hard though so don't beat yourself up if occasionally you lose AQ to AK. One thing to note here before we go on to the lessor hands is that just because you have a good preflop hand doesn't mean that it is going to win. You're going to still fold a lot of hands after the flop since you won't improve much. With these hands though, when you do catch something it will be strong.



    AJ, KQ, KJ, KTs, QTs, J9s, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22

    - These hands are middle hands that you won't want to call with heads up against another raiser. You want more people in to justify them since you'll need good flops. If you have a small pair, you'll be looking to catch one on the flop. Don't chase it after though since the odds of you catching it are worse then 1/20. To catch another one of your pocket pair on the flop is about 1/8. When you have a hand like AJ, KQ, etc you'll be hoping to catch one of those cards and it be the highest on the board. If you have a hand like QTs, J9s, KTs, etc you'll be in there for a variety of hands such as straights, flushes, two pair, etc. Becareful though playing hands like J9s and catching merely a J or 9. Often times your kick won't be good and you'll lose to a hand like AJ.



    89s, 78s, 67s, 56s, 45s, 34s

    - These hands are called suited connectors and they are similar to the hands above like J9s, QTs, etc. When you play these hands they are Draws. And if you remember from above that means that they favor lots of people in the pot and you like to play them "in the back" (late position). A great example would be to have 89s on the dealer button, the last position, and 5 people were already in before you (raise or not). You are getting great odds on this hand to play it. You are hoping to catch an openended straight draw, a flush draw, or even two pair. You can also run into hands like 889 on the flop when you have 78s, or you could even flop the nuts like this: 89s and the board is JT7. What you don't want to do is get caught up chasing down draws with these when the odds don't justify it. Also you don't want to play these against few opponents for more then a bet. For example a really bad way to play would be this: you have 89s and no one calls except one really tight old lady in front of you who raises. You call (bad move) and you end up heads up with her. The flop comes back Qs4d3d. You have nothing but a backdoor flush draw (meaning both cards have to hit, which is over 1/20 to do so). She bets, you call and go for it. The turn brings Qs4d3dAs. Now you think you may be lucky so you call again hoping to catch another spade (which is still worse then 1/4). You miss it and she wins since you have nothing. You played really poorly, going against the odds. Your 89s plays well against a lot of people so that the draw is worth while.



    A5-ATs, A5-A2s, K9s-K5s, Q9s-Q5s, J8s, T8s, 97s, 86s, 75s, 64s, 53s, 42s

    - these are marginal at best hands. The only exception would be the ATs. It would probably be best if you avoided them at first until you become more comfortable in the game playing good hands. If the game is very loose though, with lots of people chasing the whole way to the river, these hands can be profitable. We play A5s and below and ATs and above because they both have ways to hit straights as well as the flushes. Notice that A6s can't make a straight using both cards. When you play this type of hand you really aren't looking for the A since your kicker will rarely be good. Instead you are looking for the straight, flush or two pair. Because they are such long shots you'll want lots and lots of bad players in the hand to justify the call preflop. The same goes for hands like K9s, T8s, etc. You'll play these hands in late position, when you see lots of people are in and it costs you very little. Don't get trapped though. If you play a hand like T8s and the flop comes back T high with no other draws for you it would be all right to just get out. There are to many cards that can come and beat you. You would much prefer to see a flush or straight draw.



    Before continuing, how do the hands above fit into our three categories?

    Big Pair hands include things such as AA, KK, AK, QK, etc. Any situation where you have the top pair or over pair would be this.

    Drawing hands would include lots of hands above like suited connectors, small pairs, etc.

    Milking Hands really can be anything where you get hit hard on the flop and these would be two pair or better (three of a kind, sets, full houses, straights, etc).



    Position:

    - Position plays a big role in poker, even in low limit. The reason last place, on the button, is so great is because you get to see what everyone else does before you. The best players play tight in the front and loose in the back. You wouldn't want to play some of the hands above in first position, "under the gun", but you would play them in the back. A good example of a hand like this would be T8s. In a really loose game with everyone in in front of you, you would play it. Also position changes how you play individual hands. You would play JTs anywhere in a really loose game but you might raise it in the back preflop just because it is the type of hand that does well against lots of players. So when you think of your starting hand selection, you want to play tighter in the front, and looser in the back. How tight and how loose will be up to you since you'll have to see the game before setting those guidelines.



    Blinds:

    - Playing out of the blinds is different since you are already in the hand some. You'll play looser here but not too loose and how loose or tight depends solely on how many people are in the hand. If you have a hand even as weak as 79 off suit in the big blind and everyone is in (a "family pot") with a raise then you would call. The reasoning behind this is that you are getting great odds for your money. This same approach is true across the game. The less money out there, the better hand you have to have since you aren't getting good odds. The more money in the pot the weaker your hand has to be to play since if you do win even a small percentage of the time you'll profit.
     
    #11     Jun 10, 2006
  2. So know that we know a little about starting hands, how do we know how loose or tight to play in a game? That's a very hard question and the better you get the more you'll be in tune with the answer. There is no absolutes though and you will lose hands. What I'll try to explain here is how to size up a game as being a loose one that you'll get away with some lessor cards or a tight one where if you played those same hands too much you would get slaughtered. If you sit down at a game and see lots of people in preflop, even with a raise, then it is a pretty loose game. For example if you consistently see 4/5 or more people in before the flop then it is pretty average. If you see almost everyone in every hand and going all the way to the river then you have a really loose game. In contrast if you see a game where about 3 people are in preflop with a lot of raising then it is a pretty tight game and you probably will want to play something else. In very tight games you'll see one person raise and another person battle it out with them. In those games having four people in is a "family pot" while in a regular low limit game a family pot is only when everyone is in (all 9/10 players). That isn't as rare as you might imagine. When you are first starting out and you see that the game is very loose, it wouldn't be a bad idea to still stay away from hands like 57s, etc. You would still want to play KJs, QTs, JTs. If you can discipline yourself to only play those loose hands in the back (late position), then you would be playing ideally. Even a hand like A5s in the back is a great hand if everyone is in. So here are some general guidelines for how loose to play:



    Average Game (4/5 people in the flop): play your premium pairs, small pairs, big cards and suited connectors.

    Very Loose Game (7+ people in the flop): play just about anything we mentioned above in the correct position. Wait for the flop to give you a really good hand or draw and then make them pay.





    The key point here is to remember how loose your cards before the flop are depends on two things: your position and the amount of people in the hand before you. The more people in, the weaker your hand can be.



    Since we are taking our starting hands against other players and their hands, what can we expect to see in the cardroom? Let's discuss some of the various types of players you will see and how they usually play. This will help you form one of your most valuable tools as a poker player, and that is to put someone into a player category. It helps you narrow down the possible hands they could have and gives you an idea of how good your good your current hand is in comparison with theirs. When you are playing, do your best to categorize each player into the following (better types of players are listed last):



    Calling Station:

    - this is the worst type of player and the most prevalent (sometimes called a "fish"). The calling station does what his name implies, he just calls. He has poor hand selection. On the flop he will call with just about anything, and will continue to do that all the way to the river. This person has very little skill or discipline. They will be in every hand no matter if there is a raise before them. In the face of a better hand (like when a straight or a flush is on the board and they don't have it), they will just call it down. Most of the money you'll make will be from this type of player. The reason this play is so bad is that it is the exact opposite of what you should be doing. Instead of being selective and waiting for good opportunities to put your money behind you spread it out over every hand, good or bad, and in the end that can't work. Remember our bad investor analogy above. With these kinds of people in the pots, you'll just play your cards and see what happens. What that means is that you can't really put them on any kind of a hand since they could easily have AK as they could have 92. If you have a hand (like top pair with a good kicker) then just bet it and see what happens. You will want to watch out for them if they raise you though. Usually a calling station is a fairly passive player and when they raise it means something. If you can make some good folds now and then, you'll be a better player. If you can't fold a losing hand then you'll be a calling station and a losing player. When a person raises and what they raise with is another important item that you will want to watch for. It helps you not only categorize them but helps you select the hands that you play against them. When a calling station raises before the flop it could mean anything but usually they have a good hand (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, etc). Because of that, be careful about playing against them if you have a hand that could be easily dominated like KQ, KJ, KT, etc. If you notice that they are raising all the time with just about any hand they play then you may have found the next category.



    Loose Aggressive:

    - A loose aggressive player is one who plays as many cards as the calling station does but they are inclined to raise, reraise and cap hands that they shouldn't (like A5 offsuit, Q9s, etc). You'll know very quickly if a person is a loose aggressive player. A person can't get great cards all day and if they are raising three hands in a row then chances are all those hands aren't premium. When you have two or more of these types of players in a game the pots can be very large, but it can also cost you a lot of money if you lose. Two points when playing against them: remember that when they raise they don't always have AA so you can play against them with hands that you would normally just call with. A reraise when you have a decent hand to try to isolate them isn't a bad move. The second thing to remember is that even if they are raising every hand it doesn't mean that they aren't going to get a good one now and then. So with that said don't cap it with a maniac player if you just have top pair. That could be costly. Sometimes you'll find these loose aggressive players, maniacs, only do that before the flop but afterwards they tighten up some. Try to pick up on things like this. Lastly, don't be afraid of them just because they like to raise. If you have a good hand, make them pay. Some typical loose aggressive players are young asian males and guys with a short man complex (no offense).



    Rock:

    - a rock is a super tight player who only plays premium cards. When they raise you know exactly what they have (AA, KK, AK, etc). They will not be in on many hands and when they are, it will most likely be with a raise. Now a rock is better then a calling station and a maniac but they aren't playing correctly for low limit hold'em (or even other limits). The problem with low limit hold'em they run into is that when 6 other people are in a pot against their AA, it isn't going to hold up much. In the upper limits they won't get any value for their hands since the other players can read them so well. What you can learn from a rock though is that they pick good cards and try to put their money behind them. That is correct. They just aren't playing enough cards. It is the opposite of a calling station. You want to stay out of a Rock's way if you can. For example you wouldn't want to bring KJoffsuit up against a rocks raise preflop. But if you are in a multi-way pot with lots of people in and the rock raises then you would want to play your drawing hands. One good thing about playing them is that they are very predictable. When they raise you, the almost always have it so don't pay them off. Anyone who is watching the game at all can see what types of hands they are playing. You will run into some rocks playing low limit. The main reason for that is that if you are a rock it isn't easy to progress up levels, you're gonna get stuck at the low stuff because anyone who can play the game at the upper limits will cut them to pieces as fast as a calling station. The stereotypical rock is an old lady.
     
    #12     Jun 10, 2006
  3. Weak Tight:

    - a weak tight player is fairly rare at low limit. This type of player has most of the skills that a wining player possesses with one exception, they are a little scared. Moving up in levels sometimes creates weak tight players. You fear the other players and they can read into that so you can sometimes get bullied around by raises. The creation of a weak tight player can also be the result of too rigid rules. Remember poker is situational. You shouldn't be tied to any one book, saying, or system. Let your experience mold you into a good player. When you are playing a weak tight player you should watch out for them most of the time since they aren't going to be putting too many "moves" on you: they won't try to bluff you at all. It's interesting to put a loose aggressive player against a weak tight one. The weak tight player gets bullied around waiting for good cards instead of basing his hand selection on the other players. If you do find yourself in a position where something scary hits in a hand and the weak tight player is your opposition, you may have found a good time to bluff. Weak tight players are big believers, especially if the raise is on a later round with the bet size is larger. Bluffing isn't a big part of the game, but even in low limit it applies to this people since they are good enough to see what you may have and "smart" enough not to call. It is much easier to bluff a good player then a bad one since the bad player doesn't pay any attention to what you may have.



    Tight Aggressive:

    - This is the top of the pyramid. The tight aggressive player is the good investor, the laser, the sniper, the smart bomb in the poker world. This is your goal. The tight aggressive players ability to adapt to different games and players, as well as the confidence to back their moves with their bankroll makes them fierce opponents. To recognize a tight aggressive player is to see a person who doesn't play that many cards but when they do they take control. They slow play great hands. They use their position to play weaker cards when the odds justify it. They are able to fold hands that other players would be trapped in. A better hand will be any player but you'll find it difficult to make any money against a tight aggressive player. The best advice is to just play very good hands against them and hope to break even. You won't run into many of these at low limit so don't worry.

    *****************************

    As you guys might figure by now.. I think that poker and trading are quite similar skillls... if you manage to be tight {manage your risk properly} and aggressive {let your profits run} You´ll probably make a lot of money doing either...
     
    #13     Jun 10, 2006
  4. The poker/trading analogy is mostly suited to stock traders who follow a select number of stocks and know them intimately. The rules for poker are fairly simple, but what makes excellent poker players is the ability to learn betting patterns and "tells" of his fellow players to swing the odds in his favor.

    In trading a few stocks, traders learn who really moves the stocks, whether it's a major market maker/specialist or ECNs (often a disguise used by market makers). Market makers and specialists are people with their own distinct trading personalities and tendencies. Good traders can learn these "clues" after careful study.

    After watching a stock for several months, a good trader can see how market makers accumulate stocks at certain levels, or jump from the bid to the offer (disguising himself as an ECN), etc. Then the trader keeps track of how the prices are affected or which other market makers follow the "axe". This can lead to high probability trades.

    This type of price action study for specific stocks and how you subsequently trade them is the main analogy between poker and trading. It's all about the "tells" and betting patterns of the other participants in the stock.
     
    #14     Jun 10, 2006
  5. gaj

    gaj

    there's definite similarities in poker and trading...money management is a huge one, never playing with the rent money, etc.

    i've learned what my strengths and weaknesses are psychologically, and try to play to my strengths (and avoid my weaknesses). so i'll play low limit SNGs for no limit, and cash limit omaha 8 (i'm working on getting up to pot limit) in poker...and trade stocks that the big boys are only touching on, but not trading on a daily basis.
     
    #15     Jun 10, 2006
  6. HAL 9000

    HAL 9000

    They also read other players very well, regardless of the playing style.



    Add that to your statement, and you have a detailed description of Daniel Negreanu.
     
    #16     Jun 10, 2006
  7. I think a lot of traders enjoy poker so they stretch to find similarities between the two. I love trading, detest poker. I do not believe for a second that a good poker player will make a good trader or vice versa.
     
    #17     Jun 10, 2006
  8. I never really understood that quote. Unless your trading off fib s/r levels.. 38% 51% 80% etc.. how can you say "Ok, my set up has a 60% chance of going up and a 40% chance of going down"...how can you possibly know or even guess something like that?.

    If you see a hammer on your chart at the close, does that mean the stock has a 50% chance of going up..how bout 70 or 80%

    What about other forms of TA, like triangles, flags, channels..

    If you could, please explain this alittle more. Thx

    - nathan
     
    #18     Jun 10, 2006
  9. Daxtrader

    Daxtrader

    Daniel Negreanu is not tight aggressive. He's definitely a LAG. Good LAG players will make much more money than a TAG ever could. Being a TAG only works at the low stakes. This only applies to no limit games. NL is all about deception and implied odds. It's easy to read a TAG player. Good LAG players however are impossible to read. They might lose a lot of small pots and show down some horrible hands, then just when you think they are bluffing they take your entire stack with the nuts. To get action, you need to give action, and TAGS don't do that. Playing a TAG style at the low stakes is profitable though since no one is paying attention and the players are horrible. Watch High Stakes Poker on GSN and see the type of hands the players are willing to play for a raise. 4,7 suited all of a sudden is gold.
     
    #19     Jun 10, 2006
  10. The one thing I cann't stand about poker is how much time you have to play for!! I was in a tournament in Vegas($60 buy in) that took 5 hours. I came in 14 place and won $0!!

    There are traders who make 7 figure incomes only trading the first hour of the trading day.
     
    #20     Jun 10, 2006