In keeping with the PAR of my trading life... it did end up breaking lower. Yes, the right shoulder formed, but it then proceed to fail the neck line and come tumbling down to what was my first take profit target. Also of note is that the trend line (now back side of) appears to remain valid. I suppose it's going to take a long while for me to be able to accept the large swings of trading on the daily. However, I'm not regreting how I played it. I went off of the information I had at the time. It cannot be forgotten that the EUR/USD is still in a strong, daily uptrend (although it is currently in a pull back, the main trend can resume at any time). Had I been up and trading when it retested the neck line, I would have reshorted. That would have allowed to me cash in on the potentially massive downside, while only having a little upside risk. But I don't believe it would have been wise to stay in my original position that would have been down ~130 pips to then wait and see if the neck line got broken. Had the pattern followed through with a break of the neck line, I really would have been in a world of hurt.
Shorted on a break of some vague general support area. It decided it wanted to hold strong for a half hour, right up until I decided to cover (of course). During that half hour there was a couple pops that had me down about 7 pips. I averaged up on one of them, which allowed me to get out at a tiny profit on the next dip. Needless to say, the very next candle it plunged into the depths of hell. I can at least take solace in the fact that I'm able to spot these setups - if only I could get the timing right. Short USD/JPY 89.786 Covered USD/JPY 89.797 -1.1 pips Short USD/JPY 89.837 Covered USD/JPY 89.797 4 pips Net: +2.9 pips Now at 89.59. One of these days I'll get the timing right...
Basically repeated the same thing today. Got in, spooked out (for 2.2 pips), moved 20+ pips in my direction within the next (15 min) candle. However, the trade before that, time stopping myself out DID save me from a massive move against me. Basically, I've got the entries down pretty solidly, time to start working on the exits. After all, getting things right is why I have this practice account/journal. Trades were: ... I have no idea because apparently I can't even log in to the platform during off hours. Pretty irrelevant though, if anyone wants to call BS on my <5 pip wins, I'll just laugh at you. New format, no need for daily updates on here (can do that easier on the note paper in front of me). End of week 5: +70.9 pips 77.4% win rate 14.18 pips/week
Monday was too busy for any trading. Last night I had a quick scalp and an overnight. Scalp: Short EUR/USD - 1.47020 Covered EUR/USD - 1.47694 8.6 pips Sold a break out. Was in it for less than five minutes. Caught almost exactly 100% of the initial move down and about 75% of the eventual move down, no complaints with that exit. Overnight: Short USD/JPY - 88.790 Bought into the tiny bounce off support waaaaay early. Didn't pan out as the immediate break I thought we would get. Held it to see what would happen. It moved higher, I shorted again... Short USD/JPY - 88.879 Again, was way early with this entry. However, this pair has been in a massive downtrend for eons, so I held and watched. Sure enough, it failed on the hourly with a lower high. It was getting late at this point (little after 10:00pm est) so I wasn't about to stay up and wait to see if it broke support on its next test. With the second short, my net short was high enough off of support that I decided to simply set a take profit the spread distance off support and call it a day. This filled during the night, and the pair did end up exploding through support over 65 pips, although it has now bounced back to previous levels. Not complaining about the gain though. Played it safe, listened to myself and my system, and finally picked up a proper move. Lesson here, trade WITH the trend because the trend can cover your poor entries. Covered USD/JPY - 88.694 x2 10.3 pips 18.5 pips
I thought this is a great chart for the "movement is totally random" crowd. The lines on the chart were put in place at the furthest point that they're solid. They self-extend as a dashed line. So, no, this was not me adding lines in retrospect - in fact, the second blue line is from Tuesday night and is obviously still valid. Current candle is running into resistance on the bottom side of the lowest blue line. And if anyone is wondering, no I didn't pull any trades off on this movement. I have class shortly and I don't like putting on a trade unless I can commit at least an hour or two to it, just in case.
Came home last night pretty beat and distracted, but made the mistake of firing up the platform anyway. The result was essentially a bunch of hardly better than break-even scalping, right up until I buried what little gain I had when I really got stupid. No more trading when tired, that's just gambling. Market is choppy and sideways as all hell this morning. However, after much waiting, I accomplished what I wanted and negated last night's small loss on a temporary break down of USD/CAD. Having logged quite a good amount of time in front of the charts over the past year and a half, I've gotten to the point where I can "feel" the direction the market wants to break when it's chopping sideways, even when it's contrary to technicals. However, I'm not at the point that I can trade off that feeling. The lack of confidence in my market feel is mostly to blame for my scalping chop last night - I felt that the USD/JPY was trying to explode higher, but insisted on technical scalps to the downside (I blame this all on being exhausted and half out of it), this resulted in me being quick to pull the trigger on exits, but failure to simply go long and ride the wave up. The result? I made FXCM some good pips. *eyeroll* This will save me a lot of typing... End of week 6: +110.5 pips 77.5% win rate 18.42 pips/week Overall getting better, but not exactly satisfactory. Last night was totally unacceptable, even if it didn't really effect my P/L.
Man are you learning some hard lessons the hard way. Here is some advice. 1. Don't ever trade when you are not feeling well, that is when your emotions are at their worst, and it will kill you. 2. USDCAD is for early morning like starting 5:00 am est. Till about 11:30 3. EURUSD Morning into PM 4. AUDUSD after 8:00 pm EST 5. If you really want to impress your friends EURJPY after 8:00 pm, just kidding don't trade it. 6. Trade ONE pair and one pair only, stare at it till your eyes bleed, learn it well, and then once you are consistently profitable you may try another. 7. Do not trade any system that does not give you a clear entry, clear management and clear exit, and the old adage "take what the market gives" is not an exit. 8. Develop your own trading style and own system is the best way to go. Now some practical advice, 1.5000 is a sticky number on EURUSD, and we will see the price float around and consolidate for a while, we are already 14 hours into the consolidation. If you want to post some recent chart I would be glad to "heckle and Shame you" The Ever Heckling VIPER
Hey, you brought this one back. Since I lasted posted here a month ago, I've realized a lot of things that you just told me. I spent two weeks trading mostly USD/JPY, and for the last two weeks I've focused on AUD/USD. I throw the occassional scalp in there on something else, but you're right, when you really learn one pair it becomes so much easier to trade it. By way of update, my entry fear is pretty well gone - I take about 90% of the setups I should be taking. In-trade I'm managing much better: my losses have been getting smaller and smaller, I've learned to average up/down and out of bad positions, and to average up/down for more profit on good positions that go against me. I'm still having trouble taking profit too early though. I've improved, but still leave 50+% of a move on the table more often then I'd like. Current standing as of last week is: 92 trades W - 69 L - 22 BE - 1 +231.9 pips Average win - 6.87 Average loss - 8.01 And, if anyone cares, I started keeping a hand-written journal. It's helped me concentrate and not get distracted by the internet. That's why I stopped posting in this one.
Since moving to FXCM, trading with 1k lots: Got a long way to go, but I'm just keeping up with the slow and steady. I figure when I can get my account up to $300 with 1k lots, then I'll start using 10k lots.