Good Morning Ricter: 4Q GDP misses expectation and...

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Tsing Tao, Jan 27, 2012.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    A staggering 1.9% of the 2.8% GDP number is due to Inventory Stockpiling or...."channel stuffing".

    [​IMG]

    Commentary from ZH (because it makes me laugh):

     
  2. pspr

    pspr

    Don't worry. Obama wants us "making stuff, buying stuff and moving it around".

    Obama is going to buy all that "stuff" for the White House. Then we can make more "stuff" and move it around. :D
     
  3. TGregg

    TGregg

    We need to break some windows. ;)
     
  4. Ricter

    Ricter

    <img src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/ISRATIO_Max_630_378.png">

    <img scr="http://www.bls.gov/lpc/nfbbar.gif">

    US durable goods orders:
    http://ycharts.com/indicators/durable_goods_orders/historical_data


    <img src="http://www.taintedalpha.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/TaintedAlpha.com-U.S.-Retail-Sales-14012011.gif">

    In other words, one man's channel stuffing is another man's "restock, restock!" I included the productivity chart to support my gut-feel explanation for the volatility.

    HOWEVER... the household debt to income ratio... improving, but bad, worse than the government's in fact. It's falling, but the rate of fall is decreasing.

    [Sorry 'bout the oversize chart, I hate side-scrolling too. And the durable goods orders data is a link to a table. Could have taken a screenshot of that I suppose.]
     
  5. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Channel Stuffing is when inventory "restocking" exceeds future demand. Something that is evident from last Christmas's "price slashing" gone wild. But it is, technically, restocking.

    So what is it you were trying to prove in your post? Because I'm not sure where you're going with any of it.

    As for debt to income - I cant see any image or link you have with that. Did I miss something?
     
  6. Ricter

    Ricter

    I say that inventory restocking is not exceeding projected demand. Americans are acting more optimistic, inventories are very lean, manufacturing and supply-chain are highly productive, so an uptick in demand is rapidly met by an uptick in supply. Is the supply response too strong? Maybe. If it is, then one could argue that channel stuffing occurred, but in my opinion channel stuffing carries the negative connotation that wholesalers know that they're forcing product, and honestly I do not see retailers falling prey to this, in general (some mom and pop shop may overbuy, but big business knows the peril of carrying too much inventory). Anyway, throughout the supply-chain, this is the "whiplashing" business experiences as a result of JIT.

    [I have to give up on this thread, I'm on my laptop today, and the width is too much.]
     
  7. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Channel stuffing does not mean suppliers are necessarily doing it on purpose. Although in the case of the US car manufacturers, it is quite obvious they are.

    As for the term "projected" demand, you leave a lot of wiggle room for the manipulation of all sorts of statistics. But when 67% of the GDP number is based on inventory restocking and NOT Consumer expenditures (which came in less than expected - there goes your projected demand being accurate) then something is rotten in Denmark.