A correction will probably take it to 650 but no lower. Then the next move after 650 will be 800-850 or even higher.
Well said. The last several weeks gold's move has gone parabolic. When gold corrects, there will be dust for sure. That said, I am short June gold as of late Friday afternoon, with a stop (close) several dollars over Friday's high. The down close after the gap looks bearish to me. At the same time, if I'm wrong, I am out.
I think you are risking too much here $15 or so is too high ... maybe you can cover half if there is a short covering rally monday and look to sell again if it fails close to the highs of friday ? I guess if you are looking for nice down move of say $75 then risk of $15 sounds low ... good luck to you
Why not short gold stocks? Use a smaller position size, but the potential R multiple is higher. I.e. GG
Now why try to pick the top of this really strong gold rally? I think a lot of people are underestimating this gold bull market. If this even makes a quick move to $800, there will be a lot of pain and short covering. I think, buying on weakness instead of selling into stength would be a better choice.
Who's picking tops? For volatile commodities/stocks in parabolic moves I use a stop and reverse system. If gold goes up strong from the open, I will cover the short and go long. The only time I would enter a long-term position in the metals would be if the gold/silver ratio hits below 25. It's not even near there yet.
Spot gold 707, near a reversal(H&S hourly). Seems like we are set for a SHARP downturn . Good thing too, the local gold stocks have doubled within weeks... we need a rest. I bet the gold longs are fidgeting now, while I'm happy sitting on cotton and foodstuffs.(Hey, in the worst case scenario, you'd have to exchange your gold for my food ) Oil is crashing too, though I wavered on that one(especially in my newsletter), discount it
USD stronger too overnight funny thing is there is a -Hard Money conference - this week in nyc I do not know the historical dates of this conference for the gold bugs but I do remember a few yrs ago it took place just around a corrective phase in the metals markets