Good chance Market near a short term high.

I am still waiting for GM to crap out... Otherwise, I am market neutral with outstanding short-straddles (hedged on both sides)

 

daily chart of mini s&p, trading at 1264

<img src="http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d32/prajsanders/11-22-2005-esdaily.jpg">

 

The VIX is virtually a meaningless indicator.
Breadth is still decent, and no where near giving off the non-confirmations that one usually sees at tradeable tops.

My guess is that we will indeed see a minor pullback, followed by yet another rally where breadth will actually get worse than it is right now. That NOV. FOMC minutes announcement today is a huge clue for the markets, and Fed Funds futures are responding accordingly . . . The yield on the 2 year note drops 10 basis points and the chances of a third rate hike drops dramatically.

206 new highs on the NYSE on 1.7 billion shares in a Holiday Week.
Pretty impressive.

 

I see a lot of money positioning now for the post Turkey rally by going long but perhaps they have already caused the significant part of the rally to happen already and thus pushed us to overbought conditions. We might get a bounce down on some wash sale rule sellers on last day of NOV and some profit taking and the next push could be weak since most money might be long already as of now. 1260 was a short-term target for me on the SPX and perhaps tomorrow on light volume we will pause and on barely move on Friday as well.

 

Whatever the indicator says, don't believe in it too much. Wait at least for evidence that market is starting to correct. Picking the top would be dumb at this point. The market just got going these past couple of weeks.

 

blah,blah, lithium. why do you always have to give a market recap, as if no one on this site gets yahoo news?

all this crap you write, with zero price predictions. typical lithium

 

with the volume low this week and some traders taking the week off, I'm not sure how accurate the market breadth indicators are right now.

I saw a huge spike up to 1350 on the TICK today, right after the FOMC notes. That's a very bullish number for the TICK to get that high.

The day before and after Thanksgiving are historically strong.

I personally wouldn't think much about going short until Monday

 

Just a thought, here is a quote from the Stock Traders Almanac:

"As the holiday season begins, the
market’s bias turns bullish most years
in November which leads the best
three-month span of the year. Ranked
#2 on the S&P 500 and #3 on the Dow
Jones Industrials since 1950—and
third for NASDAQ since 1971—
November begins the Best Six Months
for the Dow and S&P, and the Best
Eight Months for NASDAQ.
Small caps come into favor during
November but they truly outpace their
big cap brethren starting the last two
weeks of the year. Small stocks generally
continue to soar through the early
part of the year. In years past small-cap
domination existed primarily in January
and was known as the “January
Effect”—it is now more like a November-
to-February effect. Pages 106 and
114 of the 2005 Almanac discuss this
in detail. (The just-released Stock Trader’s
Almanac 2006 updates this pattern
on pages 104 and 110. Almanac
Investor subscriber’s complimentary
copies will be shipped ASAP.)
The S&P 500 has been up the week
before Thanksgiving week eleven of
the last thirteen years, 2003 broke the
eleven-year run. The day before
Thanksgiving Day and the day after
have combined for only 9 losses in 53
years on the Dow Jones Industrials.
The best strategy seems to be going
long into weakness Tuesday or
Wednesday and staying in through the
following Monday or exiting into
strength.
The Dow Jones Industrials lost
ground in only three Novembers in the
last fifteen post-election years since
1945 (all during Vietnam); the S&P
500 was down only four. Check the
back page calendar for bullish and
bearish days as well as option expiration
week seasonality.

---------------------------------
In 1986 Yale Hirsch made the
groundbreaking discovery that most
of the market’s gains occur during six
consecutive months of the year,
November through April. To this day
this bullish bias continues to persist.
The accompanying bar chart of
average monthly gains for the Dow
Jones Industrials from 1950 to 2004
clearly illustrates the out-performance
of the months November, December,
January, March and April. February
remains the weak link in the Best Six
Months. October and July do possess
respectable average gains but it is still
clear that the Worst Six Months, May
through October, pall in comparison
to the Best Six Months.
Our simple strategy of being
invested during the Best Six Months
of the year and then switching into
cash, a money market account or
other fixed income vehicle has produced
impressive gains with limited
risk by avoiding many of the sharp
declines that have occurred over the
last 55 year during the Worst Six
Months. A hypothetical investment in
1950 of $10,000 in the Dow during
the Best Six Months grew to nearly
$500,000 versus a loss for the same
$10,000 in the Worst Six Months. This
is illustrated on page 50 of the
Almanac."

I'm always flat EOD so I really don't care either way.

 

Volume doesn't factor into AD lines.

 

I have 1273.40 as a likely SPX target, with initial resistance at 1263.45

Happy Thanksgiving!