Gone in 60 Days: Citi and Bank of America Won’t Live to See May

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bond_trad3r, Feb 20, 2009.

  1. Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) won’t live to see May. The government will take them over within the next 60 days. The announcement may come as soon as tomorrow evening.

    If there’s one thing our readers know, it’s that ChartingStocks.net has made some bold calls in the past which seemed controversial and highly unlikely at the time. Our January 2007 post warned of the coming stock market crash at a time when the market was making new all time highs. In February 2007 we warned about the breakdown of the brokerage stocks and singled out Bear Stearns (Trading at $160), Merrill Lynch (Trading at $87), and Morgan Stanley (Trading at 78). In September 2007, we warned of a selloff in the coming weeks. The market peak and decline began 4 weeks later.

    We’re going to make another bold prediction. Bank of America and Citigroup won’t live to see May. The two banks will be nationalized in the coming weeks, and we think that the announcement can come as soon as tomorrow evening (Friday evenings are when major bank announcements and failures occur).

    The US government has already committed half a trillion dollars to these two firms which is more than 10 times the amount it would cost to buy and control both companies. The market doesn’t believe that $500 billion is enough to save these companies.
    All the kings horses and all the kings men can’t put humpty dumpty back together again.

    Today both banks made fresh new lows with Citi closing at $2.51 and Bank of America closing at $3.93. The 1 year charts below show the short term price movements. You should understand that when a bank stock’s chart looks like this, even a HEALTHY bank would be in trouble. Nobody wants their deposits tied up in a company that trades at $2. The outflows of deposits from Bank of America and Citi must be catastrophic.


    The stock charts and potential run on these banks are not the only basis for our opinion. The media can be an excellent investing tool if you know how to decipher the news. We don’t watch the news for the information, we watch if for THE LIE.

    We play close attention to air time given to so-called “Experts” and the way the media spins the information. If you know that our mainstream media is simply a licensed PR firm for the US government, you can get vital information which you can use in trading. Always ask yourself - What opinion are they trying to insert? What are they selling? What’s the underlying agenda?

    The government uses the media to float policy before the public so it can digest it. By the time the government takes the action, most people not only anticipate it but are even asking for it.

    In the past two weeks there have been countless debates, op-ed’s, and even opinion polls regarding bank nationalization. The popular opinion among the establishments “Experts” is that nationalizing the banks may be the only way. Even Alan Greenspan, a LIBERTARIAN, recently said that it would be a good idea. It’s coming folks! It’s what the establishment wants. (Sidenote: They may not actually use the word nationalization, even if thats exactly what they do)

    Below is the long term view of BAC and C. These stocks have made multi decade lows. Other stock charts which looked similar to these were Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, Bear Stearns.

    What happens to the shareholder? We can only speculate that the deal would look something like the takeover of Fannie and Freddie. We believe that the common and preferred shareholders will be wiped out while the bondholders MAY be protected.

  2. If both fail, that will take the market down another 10%.

    Bank it (yes, a pun).
  3. They will not nationalize C and BAC. This would probably collapse what's left of the writhing financial system. Geightner is going to come out with his bank rescue plan within days along with the announcement of the TALF. The market is just getting oversold due to the pessimism in traders and the media. The market is about to bounce hard.
  4. Agreed.

    Six months from now, who knows what will happen, but in the short term, a sucker rally is overdue. Short C and BAC and the market in general only if you have a high tolerance for pain. We might see a retest of the '02 lows in the next few days, but it will bounce back hard. The last 30 trading days have wound this market tight.
  5. I've been hearing of this 'hard bounce' for some time, and we just keep drifting lower....and lower....and lower.

    BAC and C will be zombified. They are dead already.

    They just need to eat some more government brains from son of TARP.
  6. You got that all wrong. Uncle Sam will subsidize these MOFOs for eternity and we the taxpayers will have to foot the bill. In the meantime, the economy will grind its ass to a halt like Japan for decades, if not more.
  7. SPX bounced from about 741 to 941 just recently with no positive news. We're back down to the 700's and we will probably bounce to the high 800s, low 900s on some bogus news out of Washington before we drift back down to find the real bottom, probably in the 600s. If you want to short now, give it a go. I'll wait.
  8. AK100


    Why do you still have any faith in the politicians?

    Your comment could have been written 6+ months ago when the first rescue package came and look where we are now? The mess is still nowhere solved and the rescue packages keep coming.

    C and BAC being nationalised, you can bet on it......
  9. It's already priced in that there will be some type of nationalization, rescue or whatever you want to call it. The gov is pot committed with these two already so it doesn't matter. Don't expect a hard sell off on this announcement either, in fact you may get the opposite effect since it will be a big monkey off of the markets back. I'd expect a large bear market rally.
  10. #10     Feb 20, 2009