Gold going parabolic has in the recent past, since 2008, maybe a few times, prompted increases on margin requirements causing an unexpected collapse. She a bitch goin down.
Nothing usually works right the first time around, so took $1,000 loss per on the futures contracts, and reason I hedge covered most of the loss. Took two more stabs at shorting Gold and second try was another full loss and hedged, 3rd short I am still in and hedged, see what happens. When Crude went to 147 few years ago, took me 23 tries to find top, my long term method has very low winning percentages, but it works for me.
"unmentioned"? If you ever read any of my posts on long term commodity trading, you would have read every entry is hedged in either long option or Debit spread.
Anyway, your short trade was what it was, even if you are hedged : a bad call with a bad timing, just recognize it. I understand you will be right one day, and you are "a robot" (aka no emotion). But being patient with no emotion gives you a better reward. On a ST basis, I agree Gold is overbought. But what is the interest to anticipate the end of a bull trend? Better short weakness than strength. CM
Considering I been trading pretty close to same method since 1993 and only in last three years have added signals to system, I am very happy with overall results. One trader opinion of what bad timing or bad call is not left to me, it is automated, so like a commercial for selling some type of informercial long ago "Set it and forget it". I have "zones" of where commodities must reach for me to reverse and otherwise after deep moves in one direction, system will continue to that one direction, in this case short. I don't believe in concept of overbought or oversold, just cause in last 39 years the low in Sugar been tad under 4 cents, doesn't mean it couldn't get lower even if said to be oversold.
Ok, I understand. I don't like automated systems and other quant stuff.. but if it works for you, fine. Btw, shorting commodities now, specially Gold, can be a dangerous move. Perfect 2/3 years ago, but near the end of a bear market ? Risky. CM
I been short Gold, then got signal to end position, and now another signal to get short again. Back in 1986 thru 1992 I tried many many different trend following methods and back tested them, it wasn't a reason of ego or wanting to be first in some trade, it was based on smaller drawdown than trend trading, risk to reward and how to stay in the longest to get biggest part of nine year swing. I fully understand that 99% have always said various reasons of why I am going against the crowd of those who are very rigid in their beliefs of right and wrong, but I have worked very long and hard to find a way that made sense to me, and of course profitable for me. Not until ten years later did system become automated, and during those ten years I went insane trying to put on all the signals and looking for right options to put on, and this has expanded as I learned to refine methods of entry. I need Gold to get down to 904 before I can buy it. What trading is not risky?
So you're either short or long ? Always involved ? When there is volatility clustering, I mean 80% of the move bein' realized Over 20% of the time horizon. By the way, well done. You've been around since a while. Would like the same pedigree, Unfortunately I am from 92..