gold's H&S top

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Wallace, Nov 28, 2010.

  1. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Of course it matters. Only investors into gold don't care, plenty of other professionals out there to whom substantial oscillation presents an opportunity.
     
    #41     Jan 5, 2011
  2. Good thread.
    I haven't looked at gold long term in ages, because the trend was changing from very long term down to very long term up and I find it impossible to figure anything out when that happens. I guess by now the uptrend is established. I'm talking decades: trend was down in 80s and 90s, but I started buying in 2000 when I just knew (sometimes you have a feeling) that the trend was going to start being up again and that trend would last for a real long time.
    "Physical" I hold through a pool account at Kitco. I was made aware of pool accounts by my brother, who's very prominent in the jewelry industry. Basically it's almost like the principle behind the GLD etf, except at any time I can call them up and get the bars made and shipped to me if I feel like it, for a fee natch. I figure it's safe with them though.
    Anyway, back to the short term: I do tons of T/A, actually, on this, because I find it works very well. It's about the most tradeable market there is.
    Of course, with that said, I'm losing on thinking GDX would go up, while it's gotten beaten up the past few days. Not concerned: you can't win them all. System I have for this does get it right the majority of the time, but had a big drawdown in backtesting in 2007. (Wasn't using current system back then, so I actually had a good year in '07. Current system is based on math I developed since then.) Hopefully this year won't repeat that.
    GVZ (volatility index for the GLD etf) is wanting to go up, which is mildly bearish: the correlation here is not as strong as it is between VIX and the S&P, for instance, and I think that's because, for obvious reasons, the options skew is almost flat on GLD: skews on commodities tend to be flat, gold and the GLD etf are no exception. I've gone to net negative deltas on GDX as of now (I play it through options), and figure I'll go net positive when the system signals GVZ is wanting to head south again. Maybe the up signal will become a good one then. Maybe not. C'est la guerre.
    As for whether or not gold is really turning down long term, definite maybe. When deadbroke posted his nonsense (is that buffoon still around? I have him on ignore, so I don't know. Just curious) I was still certain it was going up, but now I'm not so sure. To me, the biggest factor is what the Fed is doing: if they stop with QE2, that will constitute a de facto tightening, and that will be bearish long term. Gold is first and foremost an interest rate play. Once interest rates start to rise, the bull will be over. This one's been very long because the trend since the dot com bust has of course been down, but you can't get lower than zero, except of course through QE. So if that ends, it means rates are going up, and that won't be good.
    I'll have to fire up my long term model again (assuming Lotus still works; it's all in Lotus 1-2-3, and I never converted it to Excel) and take a look at what that says. It signalled buy in '99, but as noted above I didn't start accumulating until 2000. With long term stuff, you can take your time.
    Apologies for being long-winded.
     
    #42     Jan 6, 2011
  3. rew

    rew

    Only fools trust the Gubmint. (Those same fools are the ones buying long term Treasury bonds at 4%.) I can't speak for the person you were responding to, but when I first bought gold I don't think there were any gold ETFs. Anyhow, there's something to be said for an asset you can put in your backpack and take with you if the shit really hits the fan.
     
    #43     Jan 7, 2011
  4. was that an / The H&S ?
     
    #44     Jan 16, 2011
  5. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Looks more like a rounded top IMO.
     
    #45     Jan 16, 2011
  6. JSSPMK, not so much about the formation but
    has gold topped ?
     
    #46     Jan 18, 2011
  7. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    It looks that way, but looks can be deceiving ;)
     
    #47     Jan 18, 2011
  8. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Going through Daily 100 SMA, not seeing a turn of it, 1,260 zone target. Ninja wants to breakout too.
     
    #48     Jan 21, 2011
  9. who's Ninja ?
     
    #49     Jan 21, 2011
  10. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    usdjpy
     
    #50     Jan 22, 2011