Goldman : Weaker economy for next 4 quarters

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ASusilovic, Jul 15, 2010.

  1. July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the dollar will weaken against the euro by January as U.S. growth slows, marking the bank’s second reversal in two months after it forecast in June the greenback would surge to a seven-year high.

    Europe’s single currency will fall to $1.22 in three months before gaining to $1.35 in six months and $1.38 in a year, according to an e-mailed research note dated July 14. The bank raised its outlook for the yen, forecasting it to reach the highest level since 1995 versus the dollar, citing lower expectations for interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve or currency intervention by Japanese officials.

    “Weaker U.S. growth, reasonably solid euro-zone macro data and less political/fiscal disruptions than feared have been a feature of the past few weeks,” wrote analysts including Thomas Stolper, an economist in London for Goldman. “This weakening in U.S. activity is the beginning of a period of sub-trend growth, spanning about four quarters until the second half of 2011.”

    The euro traded at $1.2794 as of 10:20 a.m. in London from $1.2743 yesterday in New York. It traded at 1.3404 Swiss francs from 1.3414. The dollar was at 88.03 yen from 88.41 yesterday.

    Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 23 meeting showed policy makers were concerned about unemployment and deflation in the world’s largest economy. If the outlook worsened, the Federal Open Market Committee would need to consider whether additional stimulus was appropriate, according to the minutes, which were released yesterday.

    ‘Notably Lower’

    Goldman analysts said the euro may weaken this quarter as popularity falters in some European governments and markets await the impact of stress tests on 91 of the region’s banks due July 23. The euro will move “notably lower” to 1.27 Swiss francs over three months on safe-haven flows out of the euro zone, according to the note.

    Question is : who is going to have slower economic growth, US or Europe ?
  2. Depends who cuts and who gets the IMF bailout bling.
  3. Useless