Goldman : Underweight bonds and cash, Equities greatest return next 12 month

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ASusilovic, May 13, 2009.

  1. Please see attached our latest WISH report. We remain overweight equities. We also attach a report looking at equity market re-entry strategies using derivatives. The key points are:

    We expect equities to provide the greatest return over the next 12 months as better macro data reduces uncertainty. We also recommend an overweight stance in credit and prefer IG over HY. We like commodities and would see any pullback as an interesting long-term buying opportunity. We are underweight cash and bonds.

    Equities should improve alongside better macroeconomic data

    Equities have rallied strongly since reaching a trough in March. The stabilization in macroeconomic data has been a welcome sign, and we believe the market has passed its cyclical low. However, there are potential downside risks around 1Q earnings, the banks’ stress-test results and a slow macroeconomic recovery compared with past recessions.

    Prefer high-quality IG over HY

    Investment-grade credit spreads appear to offer attractive return prospects on a 12-month horizon, especially on a risk-adjusted basis. We recommend targeting high-quality non financials (AA and A rated). We believe that tighter lending standards and increasing default rates will hit high-yield.

    Expected near-term commodity pullback offers buying opportunity

    We expect commodities prices to fall in the near term after a strong rally over the last two months. We would view this pullback as a long-term buying opportunity.

    We recommend an underweight in bonds and cash

    In the short term, bonds could benefit from non-conventional policy actions, but over the next 12 months, we see a risk that yields will be repriced higher.
  2. The GS Prop Desk wishes to do the opposite of all that. :cool:
  3. Abby Joseph Cohen is back!!!!!!!

    The ultimate fade is back, baby!

    Short away!!!!!

    (Seriously, we are going to crash and burn. Cash is King).