Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is likely to be âfairly badâ or âvery badâ over the next six to nine months. âWe see two main scenarios,â analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the New York-based chief U.S. economist at the company, wrote in an e-mail to clients. âA fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1 1/2 percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.â The Federal Reserve will probably move to spur growth as soon as its next meeting on Nov. 2-3, Hatzius said. Expectations for central bank action have already led to lower interest rates, higher stock prices and a weaker dollar, according to Goldman, one of the 18 primary dealers that are required to bid at government debt sales. http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agZ93VxOIJQQ Hum, choice between "fairly bad" and "very bad".
The boys at Goldman are some of the brightest in the business, so hearing this from them, makes me feel pretty crappy to say the least.
have an auto business and i laid off a worker at the end of august when it usuallty slows down a bit. With all the doom and gloom in the media i assumed business would be as bad as last year. But i wish i didnt lay him off because we are still busy ,Sales is up 20% from last sept . Business people dont want to hire because the media is so negative . Ask most small business they are working there staff to the bones because of understaffing . At least here in Orlando its like that.
But clever people often play 1 or 2 moves ahead of the rest which means it's in their interests NOT to let others know their real intentions, ie fool them into thinking their hand is this when in fact it's that. Not saying it's happening now but listening to an investment bank's advice is not the best way to approach the markets.
If sales are up 20%, why not ask the worker to come back. Perhaps devise a commission based payment for the worker, so you won't have to let them go and at the same time you don't waste money.
GS has a large short, so what they are doing is bluffing. The question is, how long can GS continue to hold short before they have to unwind and realize big losses.
Hum, choice between "fairly bad" and "very bad". -------------------------- Imo, we have two parts, the choice between "fairly bad and "very bad" and "six to nine months". The next leg of this "recession" project is going to be the next year state and local fiscal budgets which are more than 6-9 months away. How many ways can you spin, "no money"? Everyone drops the ball in Bernankes lap, how many tools does the Fed have? One? Money. What are you going to do, mandate lending? Ain't happeneing. I doubt the Fed can create jobs. Congress needs to get motivated.
That's true, and not only with small businesses. They're trying to brace for tough times by saving cash. Workers get squeezed, but at the same time they're thankful they ain't the one to get the boot. My sister used to work 8 hours a day, now they flood her understaffed dept with 12-14 hours of work. What can she do.
America needs to (1) TAKE A HUGE DUMP... to rid us of Obama and his ilk, and (2) find the next Calvin Coolidge!