Goldman Sachs stands by forecast of $149 for Oil

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by crgarcia, Aug 20, 2008.

  1. Goldman Sachs reiterated on Wednesday its year-end price forecast of $149 a barrel for U.S. crude oil, and said strong fundamentals were a more important factor than a strengthening dollar.

    Oil barrel with money, expensive oil

    The restatement came in a research note dated Aug. 19 but sent out on Wednesday.

    The U.S. investment bank is one of the most influential financial players in commodities markets.

    Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs
    equity analyst Arjun Murti predicted oil prices would spike to between $150-$200 before the end of 2009 due to his view of rising global demand and faltering supply.

    "Although the recent correlation in dollar and oil prices is clear, it is important to emphasise that each of these assets are driven by multiple, varying factors ... Put differently, there is more to oil than the U.S. dollar and vice versa," the Goldman Sachs energy team said in the note.

    U.S. crude prices hit an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

    Since then, prices have declined by more than 22 percent to around $115 a barrel on concerns over the strength of demand as OECD economies slow and on a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

    Weakness in the dollar during the first seven months of the year was seen as one of the key reasons for crude's rally, with investors buying dollar-priced commodities as a hedge against the greenback's decline.

    U.S crude's record high came four days before the U.S. dollar slipped to an all-time low against the euro of $1.6038.

    Crude prices sold off-sharply in the wake of the dollar's fall to its record low, with many analysts saying the U.S. currency had found a base, encouraging investors to unwind commodity hedges.

    Goldman Sachs said that despite the recent negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and oil prices, there was "very little correlation between oil prices and the U.S. dollar over the longer term."

    The investment bank sees the oil market being supported in the short-term by limited OECD oil stocks, a possible recovery in U.S. oil demand, near 10 percent growth in Chinese oil demand year-on-year in July and a drop in non-OPEC production.
    Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
  2. Maybe they need enough fools who buy their shorts?
  3. Looks like someone is caught long up to their ass in oil. No matter, I'm sure they can move the positions to their "in-house hedge fund" and end up sticking their investors with the loss. Nice try.
  4. They're doing "damage control" to protect their year-end bonus. :cool:
  5. Geez. That call was almost legendary - WHY would you risk amazing credibility with a second reiteration? I mean, you were right. Everybody saw it and knew it. Coast.

    Everything to lose and nothing to gain.
  6. Probably about right.
  7. What was LEGENDARY was this video by Matt Simmons appearing on Bloomberg back in Feb. 2007:

    Calling for $300 Oil.