This site has a very long term chart (1867-2003) in constant (2000) dollars. http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
The problem is that people think that the best of the best are employed at GS. In reality, they are only paid the best. Their calls have been suspect at best for the last few years. But their reputation gets them so much business in M&A and the Fixed Income side, that they can afford to hire idiots in other divisions.
Oil economics completely eludes me? We are not talking about a renewable resource here I mean surely we should be consuming a huge supply with our modern lifestyles. Does anyone really know how much there is and when it will run out? Has anyone every done acurate computer generated scenarios.
Perhaps GS has the best of the best, and they are also paid the best. But brainiacks can't predict the future any better than some bum off the street.
I don't think anyone knows within a large % of how much oil is out there. The problem is not "how much" but "how much at what cost?". If it cost $15/bbl to get it and it is selling for $10?? Forget it. Move that price to $50/bbl and add years of new technology and suddenly there is a lot of profitable oil all around you. But the cost have gone up also. The companies pay daily rates to rent a drilling rig and that cost is very high from what friends in the business tell me. Sometime no equipment is available at all. The new technology has enabled the companies to have a fairly high rate of success in todays prospecting as opposed to the old days of drilling 5 wells and having 4 "dry holes" For the most part, they know where the oil is, it just a matter of how much is down there and what are the cost to bring it up and get it to market. This is not a business for the faint of heart, LOL. IMHO, I think it is the toughest business in the world. SteveD
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Good point; & when CBS news quoted them on Sunday news- wondered if it may be a set UP for a put down. Oil/gas sector is still in medium & long term uptrend and ; in fairness to Goldman they ARE not predicting, said ''could push oil to $105'' Dont call ''could '' a prediction. However thier noise headline''SUPERSPIKE ''may be an emotional set up for a putdown. That Goldman guy must be a fundamentalist and; there are huge options of more oil, more alternative sounces, and bottom line polar bears can live with increased production/lower prices. Med & long trend is still up.
If you read the report He's using a mutli-factor model. That is a linear regression. So what his R^2 is .85 Again I say so what.
Golden Snacks has been resting on its reputation for 20 years. Once they stopped being a true partnership, it just became another merril.