nice calls. 10/24/2005 08:29 Goldman believes the pull-back in energy sector is only temporary Goldman Sachs says that despite a 15% pull-back quarter-to-date, Energy remains the top performing sector in the S&P 500 with a 21% YTD return vs. a 2% decline for the market. Firm believes the pull-back is only temporary. Much of the demand decline is likely involuntary, stemming from a scarcity of inventories. Even if low demand persists, major refinery and production shut-ins should keep markets tight, prices high, and corporate profits flush. 10/21/2005 08:35 Base Metals: Higher China growth forecast and supply disruptions to extend the metals cycle - Goldman 3/31/2005 08:42 "Super spike" period may be upon us - Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs believes that oil markets may have entered the early stages of a "super spike" period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return. Firm says resilient demand has caused them to revise up their super-spike range to $50-$105 per bbl from $50-$80 per bbl, and they see as much as 80% total return upside to super spike-adjusted peak values, and are comfortable recommending that investors add to positions in the sector. Top picks remain XOM, AHC, BBG, DVN, ECA MUR, NFX, PXD, PCO, STR, and SU.
Much of gulf capacity is still shut down, some will never come back on line because it is old infrastructure and too costly to repair with too little left in wells. Refineries aren't going to be built over nite even if they can get permits. 40% of imported crude is refined into gasoline, are people who drive large cars going to buy a Pirus? Dec and Jan will be cold according to Farmers Almanac, the other mos. unusually warm. The price per barrel due to dollar valuation should be above $ 40.00. It is widely assumed that $15-$18 per barrel is pure speculation by hedgies. Is there really a shortage, seen any lines lately. The mkts are emotional animals that love drama. GS is pushing their own bag, wonder how many clients they have long at high #'s. There are seemingly valid arguments in every direction, mkts delight.